Analysis of the Struggle Between Congress's Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot Amid BJP's Aspirations
The current political landscape in the Indian state of Rajasthan is filled with tension and speculation. The focus is primarily on the power struggle between Ashok Gehlot, the Chief Minister of Rajasthan, and Sachin Pilot, a prominent figure in the Indian National Congress (INC). This controversy has all but overshadowed the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) aspirations of forming a government. In this article, we dissect the underlying dynamics and analyze why BJP's quest to form its own government remains a distant dream at this juncture.
The Real Power Struggle
The so-called conflict centers around Ashok Gehlot's attempt to sway INC's high command. According to reputable political analysts, the primary issue is not Sachin Pilot's influence over his fellow ministers but rather Gehlot's efforts to retain control over the ruling party. Gehlot's apprehension stems from the likelihood that INC's high command might eventually cater to Pilot's demands, effectively making the Chief Minister lose his position.
The BJP's Chances in Rajasthan
The BJP, in its current capacity with a mere 72 seats in the state assembly, stands little chance of forming a government independently. To achieve this, the BJP would need the support of at least 30 additional Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs). This feat is virtually impossible without a legally valid division of the INC Legislature Party. Such a split would require a minimum of 72 MLAs to defect from INC, which is far beyond Sachin Pilot's current base.
The Resignation Strategy
A nuanced observation reveals that even if Sachin Pilot and his 19 supporters resign from INC, it would not be sufficient for BJP to form a government. The magic number remains at 90 MLAs, a significant gap given the current composition of the assembly. Even in scenarios where all 19 of Pilot's supporters resign, BJP would still be short by at least 50 Congress MLAs.
Local Supports and Independent MLAs
Adding to the complexities, the current assembly includes 13 independent MLAs, with at least 11 of them being loyal to Gehlot. Sachin Pilot's strategic importance as the former Governor of Rajasthan and State President in 2018 is also worth noting. Despite his brief stint, he picked up candidates with the approval of INC's high command. More importantly, he managed to field many of his own supporters, particularly in constituencies where he could not nominate his candidates, by encouraging them to contest as independents.
Political Backlash and Caste Dynamics
Another critical factor to consider is the caste and regional dynamics. The people of Rajasthan might view Sachin Pilot's betrayal as a significant betrayal, considering his long-standing relationship with the Congress party. Even if he leaves Congress, it is unlikely that people will easily forget his past affiliations and perceive him favorably. Moreover, no regional party has succeeded in Rajasthan beyond a certain point, indicating the importance of these dynamics.
In conclusion, while the media focus remains on the drama unfolding between Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot, the BJP's chances of forming a government remain bleak. It is not merely a matter of political strategy but one deeply rooted in local dynamics and regional sentiments. If Sachin Pilot chooses to defect from Congress, he might find solace in becoming an ordinary BJP member and working for the party, possibly achieving lesser but respectful positions within the party ranks.