Assad's Next Steps: Holding Aleppo and Expanding Control

Introduction

Aleppo has fallen, marking a significant turning point in the Syrian conflict. As the Syrian regime recovers this crucial city, the next steps for President Bashar al-Assad and his allies will be crucial in consolidating their control and ensuring the stability of the region. This article will delve into the military and political strategies Assad may employ, focusing on the targeted capture and fortification of key areas such as Palmyra, Al-Bab, and Hama and Homs.

Military Strategy

Hold Aleppo

Once all of Aleppo is firmly under the control of the Syrian government and its allies, the first task for Assad will be to solidify his grip on the city. This involves preventing separatist or extremist groups from brinkmanship or reviolent actions. Aleppo serves as a logistical and economic hub. Its stability is critical for the regime's overall strategy and public image within Syria.

Reclaim Strategic Locations

Another key military objective for Assad is the recapture of gas fields and securing towns such as Palmyra and Al-Bab. Palmyra, a historic city and UNESCO World Heritage Site, represents not only a source of strategic resources but also serves to bolster Assad's international image, showcasing his regime’s power and control. The nearby gas fields, especially those near Palmyra, are essential for generating electricity and furthering the regime's ability to maintain control over infrastructure.

Secure Al-Bab

Securing Al-Bab is of paramount importance for the safety of Aleppo and the broader area. This town serves as a buffer zone protecting Aleppo from potential threats, such as the Turkish presence. The recent Turkish military interventions have highlighted the ongoing tension between Assad's forces and Turkey’s interests in the region. A secure Al-Bab can limit the influence of both Kurdish and Turkish forces in the area.

Political Maneuvers

Negotiate Peace with Rebels

Following the fall of Aleppo, Assad may seek to negotiate with rebel factions, taking advantage of his newfound strength. While the regime generally operates with a heavy authoritarian hand, recent interviews have suggested a willingness to engage in dialogue and possibly reach some form of agreement to stabilize the region. The reason for the regime's support among the people is not necessarily political loyalty but a desire for stability and safety.

Prioritize Securing Hama and Homs

The geographical regions of Hama and Homs are crucial for Assad's broader control. While the cities themselves are under government control, the countryside remains a contested area. The Hama-Homs region is a vital highway connecting Damascus with the coast. Securing this area would demonstrate regime dominance and control over a large swath of Syrian territory, extending from Turkey to Jordan.

Prepare for Further Incursions

The next likely target after securing Hama and Homs would be Daraa. With tens of thousands of militias, including Daesh, present, controlling Daraa would bring significant territorial gains. It would connect northern border regions with southern areas, tightening the regime's control and securing key routes and resources.

Conclusion

As Assad and his allies consolidate control over Aleppo, the next steps will be critical in shaping the future of the Syrian conflict. Military and political strategies must be carefully planned and executed to ensure the regime's longevity and stability. By securing key towns, fortifying strategic locations, and addressing the needs of the people, Assad may be able to manage the regional power dynamics and stabilize the Syrian landscape.