How Will Assad Respond to Turkey Invading Northern Syria?
As Turkey moves into northern Syria, the international community remains closely watching Assad's response. Considering Assad's history and the current state of the Syrian army, his actions and strategies are likely to be influenced by complex geopolitical factors.
Syrian Military Capabilities
Assad has a record of accepting help from any source against his enemies, and he certainly views the Kurds as such. However, the Syrian military's capabilities are significantly diminished, with the number of soldiers dropping from 300,000 in 2011 to an estimated 30,000 today. The reduced military strength means that Assad will not engage in a direct confrontation with the Turkish army, especially given the ongoing internal conflict and the war still raging in parts of Syria.
Geopolitical Alliances and Potential Outcomes
The Turkish invasion creates an interesting and potentially beneficial position for the Syrian government. Turkey's involvement has not only created an opportunity for the Syrian army to reclaim lost territories, but it also appears to have reduced the division among the Kurds, who are now more willing to accept the Syrian military's dominance. However, if the Turkish army remains permanently in Syria, it is likely to heighten tensions and possibly lead to intimidation from both sides.
Regarding the future, it is believed that Turkey is unlikely to annex any Syrian territories, but they may commit acts of violence on the Kurds to gain leverage. Subsequently, Turkey is expected to sign a treaty with Assad, repossessing the land and securing assurances that the Kurds will continue to be oppressed. This move is aligned with the interests of Russia and Assad, and thus they will likely benefit from this arrangement.
Impact of the Conflict on Regional Stability
Assad's decision to leverage Turkey for support in the fight against the Kurds is expected to further fragment the region. This will exacerbate the issue of returning Syrian refugees, as Assad is likely to permit their return as a means to re-establish control. However, the success of such a return is uncertain, as many refugees may face expulsion from refugee camps.
The Syrian army, though not capable of facing the Turkish forces head-on, can still be supported by Russia and Iran. These countries may play a strategic role in advocating for the Syrian government's needs and providing necessary resources. The unity of the Syrian country is also a significant challenge, given the alliance with hard-line factions.
The Turkish and Syrian governments will have to find a way to coexist, which may involve adopting more aggressive tactics towards the Kurds. The Kurds have been fighting against both Syrian forces and ISIS, so Assad may be willing to gain this support. The outcome of this conflict is significant for multiple parties: Turkey, Syria, Russia, the Kurds, the United States, and Western Europe. The potential for the remaining ISIS fighters to move westward could further destabilize regions.
Given the current geopolitical landscape, it is clear that while Syria and Russia may win from the conflict, the Kurds and the West could face severe consequences. The Syrian government's approach to the Kurdish problem will be crucial in determining the success of this strategy, and the global community will be watching closely for any developments.