Brunei's Dilemma: Will the Nation Be a Developing Country Soon?
Brunei, by most measures, is a developed nation with its Human Development Index (HDI) at 0.856, a GDP (purchasing power parity) per capita of $54,537, and a nominal GDP per capita of $36,855. However, the nation's continued reliance on oil could lead to a significant decline, potentially relegating it to the status of a developing nation within the next three decades.
Current Economic Situation
Brunei’s economy is heavily dependent on oil, but it only has around 22 years of oil reserves left, significantly less than countries like Saudi Arabia. The price of oil has been plummeting, and the future of fossil fuels is uncertain. According to data from the Statista, the nation is at a critical crossroads.
Crises and Future Challenges
Brunei is facing an economic crisis, with its deficit standing at around 16% of its GDP. This deficit is even higher than Greece during its financial crisis, further exacerbating the nation's economic instability. The reign of the oil-dependent economy is coming to an end, and the nation needs to diversify its economy to avoid a devastating economic collapse.
Plan for Diversification: Vision 2035
In an attempt to mitigate the coming crisis, Brunei launched a plan called Vision 2035, aiming to diversify its economy into areas such as tourism and technology. However, the plan has faced significant setbacks. For instance, the recently implemented Sharia law has deterred many expatriates who make up a significant portion of the workforce in Brunei.
Impact of Sharia Law and Expatriate Exodus
The strict implementation of Sharia law has proven to be a double-edged sword. While some may welcome the cultural shift, many expatriates are leaving the country, frustrated by the change and feeling that they no longer fit in. Prince Jefri's use of expat taxes to fund controversial projects, such as statues of him engaging in controversial practices, has further alienated them. This exodus of skilled labor could severely impact the nation's economy and development.
Failed Efforts and Future Direction
Brunei's attempts to establish itself as a center for Islamic banking have also faltered. Neighboring countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia have emerged as more attractive alternatives, making it hard for Brunei to compete.
Education and Future Workforce
The lack of education among Brunei's locals poses another significant challenge. With no immediate plan for agricultural diversification and a reluctance to engage in the hard work required for farming, the nation's future seems uncertain. Despite having fertile land, a large portion of it remains unused. Instead of utilizing this fertile soil for agriculture, the government has opted to purchase land in Australia, which is both costly and impractical.
Conclusion and Outlook
Brunei's future as a developed nation hangs in the balance. The government needs to implement effective strategies for diversifying its economy, improving education, and attracting a skilled workforce. Only then can the nation hope to avoid the fate of becoming a developing country in the near future.