Can the Canadian Liberal Party Remove Their Leader?
The current Canadian Liberal Party leader, Justin Trudeau, is facing considerable pressure regarding his leadership. This pressure is multifaceted, stemming from both party dynamics and public opinion. However, a key legal hurdle stands in the way of removing Trudeau without his voluntary resignation.
Legal Constraints and Trudeaism's Perseverance
The Canadian Constitution stipulates that a leadership review can only be conducted if the leader has been defeated in an election. This provision acts as a significant roadblock for stakeholders aiming to depose Trudeau through internal processes.
Eight or nine years ago, the Conservatives introduced the Reform Act, aiming to take away some of the leader's powers and give MPs more rights. This act allows for a leadership review if a petition gathers enough signatures from MPs. Initially, the Reform Act seemed to solidify mechanisms within the party to address internal disputes, notably granting MPs the right to vote a leader out of caucus if over 50% of members agree.
Remarkably, the Reform Act included a requirement for a vote on any changes to the caucus rules, necessitating the reporting of results to parliament. However, Justin Trudeau, who had originally supported this act, had never allowed a vote on the issue, making the Reform Act's application practically irrelevant.
The Battle for Political Survival
Despite the legal constraints, a significant number of Liberal MPs have been trying to save their electoral chances in the next election by urging Trudeau to resign. This plea is rooted in the belief that Trudeau's unpopularity could negatively impact their chances of re-election.
Trudeau has said he will not resign unless the party is defeated in the next election. As of now, the polls and expert opinions suggest that this could be the case, given Trudeau's decreasing public support. If the Liberals fail to win in the upcoming election, it is highly possible Trudeau will step down, as predicted by the majority of political analysts.
On the other hand, even if the Liberals win again, Trudeau will likely remain the leader due to the lack of any coherent mechanism to challenge his leadership.
The Reform Act and Its Unfulfilled Promise
The Reform Act, passed with the support of Justin Trudeau, aimed to give MPs more power to hold their leader accountable. However, the act required the annual reporting of caucus vote outcomes to parliament, a requirement that was never met due to Trudeau's refusal to conduct the vote.
The lack of enforcement mechanisms and the inaction of the Speaker, who stated that it was not their responsibility to enforce such laws, have effectively nullified the Reform Act's potential impact. Consequently, there is currently no legal or procedural process within the Liberal Party that can be used to remove Trudeau unless he resigns voluntarily.
Conclusion
The bar to removing the Liberal leader is currently set extremely high. Despite the pressure from many within the party and public dissatisfaction, the constitutional and procedural hurdles prevent any meaningful change. Only a defeat in the next election or Trudeau's own decision to step down could signal a shift in the leadership of the Canadian Liberal Party.