What is the Largest U.S. City That Generally Votes Republican?

When discussing the largest U.S. city that generally votes Republican, there are several factors to consider. Election data is often complex and region-specific, making it difficult to definitively identify the largest city with a strong Republican voting orientation. However, several notable cities stand out as heavily Republican-leaning.

Recent Data and City Analysis

Based on recent election data, it is generally accepted that Oklahoma City was the largest city to vote for Donald Trump in the 2016 election, ranking 24th in the nation by population. It's important to note that while the final results can sometimes be adjusted, the trend is consistent. Many states, especially in the South and Midwest, do not always follow strict city boundaries in their precinct delineations, which can complicate city-level election results. However, as of 2020, Oklahoma City continued to show a strong Republican-leaning trend.

Conservative Cities with Sizeable Populations

In addition to Oklahoma City, other cities that fall into this category include:

San Diego, California: Home to the 5th largest city in California, San Diego has a moderate Republican voter base, though it's not the strongest in the country. Jacksonville, Florida: With an estimated population of over 900,000, Jacksonville is the 12th largest city in the U.S. and has a strong Republican leaning, with seven Democrats and 12 Republicans on the city council. Lubbock, Texas: Lubbock is often cited as a highly conservative city, with some arguing that it is one of the most conservative cities in America. It falls within the 4th congressional district, which is heavily Republican. Hialeah, Florida: Hialeah is another city that leans conservative, though it is not exclusively Republican. It is the 4th most conservative city in the U.S., according to research by Cox in 2004.

Population-Based Analysis of Large Republican Cities

Considering the most-populous cities in the U.S., Houston, Texas, stands out with its strong Republican-leaning tendencies. Houston is the 4th largest city in the U.S. and encompasses several congressional districts that have a Republican voting preference.

Partisan Voting Index of Houston's Congressional Districts

By consulting the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI), which measures the average voting preference in each congressional district, we can gain insight into the Republican leanings of Houston:

Key Republican Districts:

2nd District: R13 7th District: R13 8th District: R25 9th District: D22 (Democratic) 10th District: R10 14th District: R18 18th District: D24 (Democratic) 22nd District: R13 29th District: D8 (Democratic)

The overall CPVI for Houston is R4, indicating that it is 4 points more likely than the national average to vote Republican. This makes Houston the largest city with a substantial Republican-leaning population despite not being the most dramatically Republican-voting urban area.

Conclusion

When considering the largest Republican-leaning cities in the U.S., Oklahoma City, Jacksonville, Lubbock, and Hialeah stand out as notable examples. However, Houston, with its large size and strong Republican-leaning tendencies across multiple congressional districts, is the largest city with a predominant Republican voting base.

While the political landscape is constantly evolving, the data suggests that these cities maintain a strong Republican voting pattern. As with any political analysis, it’s crucial to consult the most recent and reliable data sources for the most accurate insights.