What are the Potential Consequences of Unifying Gaza and the West Bank?
In the ongoing complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, the unification of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank remains a highly debated topic. The Gaza Strip, with its relatively smaller area of about 600 square miles and a population of around 400,000, contrasts sharply with the West Bank, spanning 2,270 square miles and hosting a population of 700,000. These territories, once under different governance, were later occupied by Israel following the 1967 Six-Day War.
Historical Context
Historically, the Gaza Strip was under Egyptian administration from 1967 until the Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty of 1979, where it was transferred to Israeli control. The West Bank, on the other hand, had been unified with Jordan under the 1950 Act of Unity, but after the 1967 war, both Gaza and the West Bank were occupied by Israel. Despite numerous United Nations General Assembly resolutions calling for the withdrawal from occupied territories, Israel continues to claim these territories.
Possible Scenarios and Their Consequences
The potential consequences of unifying Gaza and the West Bank depend heavily on the nature of the unification. There are three main scenarios:
Unified Leadership under the PLO: This scenario could lead to a return to the Oslo Accords, where the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) commits to an Israeli state. While this could be encouraging for peace and economic development, it is not without risk, as past agreements have faced severe challenges. Unified Leadership under Hamas: This scenario would likely result in a more aggressive stance towards Israel, potentially escalating tensions and leading to wider conflict. The involvement of Hamas, which is supported by Iran, could lead to international sanctions and further isolation. Con federation of the PLO and Hamas: This scenario might offer a middle ground, allowing for some coordination but also maintaining the conflicting ideologies of the two factions. However, the presence of both would still likely result in conflict....
The Ethos of Palestinians and Their Economy
It is often argued that the unification of Gaza and the West Bank could bring an end to the entrenched self-imposed penal colony status. However, the current economic and social realities present a formidable challenge. The Palestinian territories largely depend on foreign aid and humanitarian assistance, and the economy remains fragile. Any unification would need to address this dependency and promote sustainable economic growth.
The Role of External Actors
Currently, organizations and states such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi, and Iran are actively working towards the de facto unification of Gaza and the West Bank. Their success, or lack thereof, is a matter of ongoing debate, as evidenced by the complex geopolitical situation and the reluctance of external actors, such as Jordan, to join in this endeavor.
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