Coping with the Expiry of Mineral Resources: Our Future When Ore Deposits Deplete

For as long as humans have existed, we have relied on minerals and metals to facilitate our survival and advancements. However, the persistence of this reliance has led to questions about what will happen if all ore deposits eventually deplete. Could our modern civilization collapse under such circumstances? Let's explore this scenario and assess its potential impact.

The Impossibility of Extinction

Questions like, "What if all ore deposits are found and we deplete them all? What will happen to modern civilization?" often surface on platforms like Quora. These queries often portray an improbable scenario where humanities’ extinction is imminent due to the depletion of essential minerals. The fundamental truth is that human life has thrived because of the vast abundance of necessary minerals and metals. Thus, it is highly unlikely that humanity will go extinct.

The Case of Copper

Copper, likely the first metal to run out, is a vivid case study of this challenge. The world currently consumes around 30 million tonnes of copper annually, with known reserves standing at approximately 800 million tonnes. Optimistically, there might be another 5000 million tonnes left. However, this optimistic scenario seems highly unlikely. Based on current consumption rates, we are projected to exhaust easily accessible copper deposits within the next 100 years.

Preparing for Copper Depletion

While the exhaustion of accessible copper mines is a serious concern, it does not mean the end of human civilization. A multitude of strategies will be employed to mitigate the situation. These strategies include:

Mining Landfills

Landfills present a rich source of underutilized copper. Old garbage dumps are filled with copper-containing materials such as old copper wires, motors, and electronic circuit boards. While the concentration of copper in landfills is lower than in mines, as the price of copper skyrockets, these landfills will become increasingly profitable to mine.

Mining Houses and Buildings

Before mining landfills, another practical solution is to extract copper from buildings. Copper pipes and wiring in many buildings are nearly pure copper, making them easily accessible and economically viable to mine. For instance, if copper were to cost the same as silver, it would be financially beneficial for a company to offer to rewire and re-plumb a house in exchange for a considerable cash reward.

A Case Study: Rewiring Houses

Imagine a scenario where copper is priced similarly to silver. A company might approach homeowners with an offer they couldn't refuse: they would rewire and re-plumb the entire house for free and give the homeowner $10,000 if they consent. This deal would quickly become attractive, leading to the removal of copper wiring and pipes in many homes. They would be replaced with more modern, cheaper alternatives such as PEX plastic plumbing pipes and aluminum wiring.

Aluminum Wiring: A New Norm?

Aluminum wiring, once notorious for early installation issues, has become a more viable solution in recent years. Its adoption is gaining traction as the demand for copper increases. Aluminum wiring is lighter, cheaper, and more abundant, making it a more sustainable option for many applications.

Conclusion

The depletion of copper and other minerals is a real and pressing issue. However, humanity has shown remarkable adaptability and innovation. By repurposing resources from landfills, reusing materials within buildings, and adopting alternative materials, we can continue to thrive even in the face of mineral scarcity.