Introduction
Would Poland, Germany, Sweden, and Finland be enough to defeat Russia and capture Moscow if a war were to break out today? Considering the current geopolitical landscape and historical precedents, this scenario is not as far-fetched as it may appear.
Strategic Alliances andinternational Support
The operation would involve several key NATO members, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Norway, Great Britain, and even Spain. These countries would provide a diverse mix of resources and military capabilities. For instance, Norway could play a crucial role in maritime operations, while Britain and Spain might offer advanced infantry and naval support.
Russia's Weakness: Territorial Extent and Supply Lines
One of Russia's biggest vulnerabilities in such an operation would be its vast territorial expanse. Supply lines would stretch excessively, similar to the challenges faced during the war in Ukraine. The logistical nightmare would make it difficult for Russia to sustain prolonged military engagements across multiple fronts. Historically, empires with extensive territorial claims, like Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Adolf Hitler, faced severe logistical challenges during invasions and campaigns.
Local Population Resistance
The local population's reaction would be another critical factor. In instances like the Wagner rebellion in Rostov and the Ukrainian occupation of Kursk, the population often either welcomed or was indifferent to the new rulers. This factor could significantly weaken resistance against NATO forces in Russia's territory. It is worth noting that the Russian government’s actions during such local uprisings, like Putin's hiding in Rostov when Wagner's fighters entered, would likely increase local support for any NATO incursions.
Putin's Potential Responses
However, one cannot rule out extreme actions from Putin. In a desperate situation, he might resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons or employ long-range missiles from submarines and nuclear bombers to target NATO countries, including those not directly involved in the invasion. This would reflect the escalation and unpredictability often seen in such scenarios.
Conventional Military Capabilities of NATO
Given Russia's poor performance in the war in Ukraine, it would be reasonable to conclude that NATO, with its collective military might, could succeed in a conventional war without nuclear involvement. However, it is essential to note that this would only be the case if Russia misjudges the situation and launches an attack on a NATO member. Any such decision by Russia would be met with severe consequences, both militarily and diplomatically.
Poland and Finland as Independent Forces
Even if we consider the scenario without Germany, it is likely that Poland and Finland, individually, would be capable of defeating Russia in a non-nuclear war. Both countries have modernized their militaries in recent years, with Poland investing heavily in various defense systems and Finland maintaining a strong border security apparatus.
While it appears that the primary threat from Russia is directed at countries like Helsinki, Warsaw, Berlin, and Stockholm, it is crucial to remember that Russia threatens all of Europe to achieve a new Russian Empire and to "Make Russia Great Again." This aggressive stance underscores the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the strategic importance of NATO's collective defense mechanisms.
Conclusion
The feasibility of Poland, Germany, Sweden, and Finland defeating Russia and capturing Moscow today hinges on various factors, including strategic alliances, the extent of Russia’s logistical challenges, and local population reactions. However, the potential for extreme measures by Putin and the depredations of war make this a complex and dangerous scenario that requires careful consideration and preparedness.