What Are the Legal Precedents for Secession?

States cannot secede unilaterally, a principle firmly established by the Supreme Court’s ruling in United States v. Southern Secession in 1865. This decision clarified that the power to assert independence lies in the hands of the federal government alone, not individual states.

The Primal Principles of Sovereignty and Federalism

Much like Horace Mann's efforts to shape the narrative of the nation, the foundations of the United States are deeply rooted in the principles of popular sovereignty and the doctrine of expressed powers.

James Madison, one of the Founding Fathers, succinctly articulated these principles at the Virginia ratification convention in 1788. He stated: 'All Political Power is inherent in the People, therefore a Constitution is necessary to specifically state what Powers the people are giving to their government. Thus a Bill of Rights is not needed as we have not given to this government the power to interfere with your rights.'

This assertion is crucial in understanding that the federal government's powers must be explicitly delegated by the states and the people. Any powers not expressly granted are retained by the states and the people. This is reinforced by the 9th and 10th Amendments to the Constitution.

Analysing the Perpetual Union Clause

Another pertinent clause is the Perpetual Union, which existed in the Articles of Confederation. Article XIII stipulated: 'Every State shall abide by the determination of the United States in Congress assembled and that the Articles thereof shall be inviolably observed by the States we respectively represent and that the Union shall be perpetual.'

However, this clause does not appear in the current US Constitution. The supremacy clause in Article VII of the Constitution states: 'The ratification of the conventions of nine states shall be sufficient for the establishment of this constitution between the states so ratifying the same.' This means that only nine states were required to ratify the new constitution, leaving the others open to decide their own paths.

Therefore, the concept of a 'Perpetual Union' is not cemented in the current constitutional framework.

Potential State Joins

If Texas were to secede, the likelihood of other states joining would depend on various factors, including historical, economic, and political ties. Central states like Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and possibly Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois might join if for similar reasons.

For the southeast region, states like Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida might also be inclined to follow suit if upheaval in the federal government was the driving force. Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah would present different challenges due to geographical isolation or complex economic dependencies.

Implications and Benefits of Secession

Sukking over complex federal programs, parks, and land acquisitions, and disentangling military bases and personnel would indeed be arduous. However, the allure of local control and tailored governance could be a compelling factor.

If successful, a secession could result in a decentralized federal state, fostering a stronger sense of local identity and governance.

However, the federal government would likely face significant resistance, and the process of secession would be fraught with legal challenges.

To sum up, the secession of Texas would likely provoke a complex and divided federal response. The historical, cultural, and economic ties among states would play a significant role in determining which states might follow.