Electoral College Implications for 2020: Trump’s Base and Biden’s Campaign
The Republican National Committee (RNC) recently claimed that 82% of the 2016 Trump voters still support him. If this is accurate, it raises intriguing questions about the upcoming 2020 election and its potential outcomes.
Assumptions and Electoral College Outcomes
According to the RNC, approximately 60 million votes were cast for Donald Trump in 2016. If 82% of these voters still support him, that would translate to about 49 million votes. On the flip side, if, under the same conditions, Biden matches Clinton's 63 million votes from 2016, the election would likely be a landslide victory for Biden.
Scenario Analysis
1. None of the 18 dissenting Trump voters go to the polls:
In this scenario, Trump still secures 49 million votes, and Biden surpasses the 63 million votes of 2016, leading to a landslide victory for Biden.
2. Half of the 18 dissenting Trump voters go to the polls:
If 9 additional voters switch to Biden, Trump would have 49 million votes and Biden 64 million, resulting in an even stronger victory for Biden.
3. All of the 18 dissenting Trump voters go to the polls:
In this case, Trump would bolster his vote count to 50 million, while Biden gets 63 million, still securing a comfortable victory for Biden.
Demographics and Voter Behavior
There is substantial uncertainty regarding the turnout of older voters (over 50) in the 2020 election. Many retirement facilities offer transportation to polling places, yet there are signs that older voters may not be as enthusiastic as usual. Their typical high voter turnout aligns with their strong support for the Republican party, making it highly improbable that Trump could secure the presidency.
Polling and Current Trends
Recent polls provide mixed results, but they are not in favor of Trump. For instance, a Politico/Morning Consult poll in 2017 indicated that 82% of 2016 Trump voters would support him again if voting conditions were similar. However, a more relevant poll by Reuters/Ipsos in June 2020 suggested that 82% of Republicans approved of Trump's job performance. This does not directly correlate to the 2016 election results, as some Republicans did not support him in 2016 and still consider themselves Republicans.
Trust and Verification
The RNC's public statement on 82% support for Trump is met with skepticism from many analysts due to its implications. If only 82% of 2016 Trump voters still support him, it would be a significant blow to the Republican party and an extraordinary claim. The RNC likely knows the real numbers, and would not report such a statistic if they believed it to be accurate.
Analysts and the public are seeking further evidence to substantiate this claim. The maxim by astronomer Carl Sagan, “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” applies here.
If you have credible sources or additional information to back the RNC's claim, please share it. The goal is to reach a consensus and understand the full picture of voter support and election outcomes.