Is Ethiopia Likely to Annex Eritrea to Avoid Being Landlocked?

While the idea of Ethiopia annexing Eritrea to avoid being landlocked may seem tempting, several factors make this unlikely. Historical contexts, international laws, regional dynamics, economic considerations, and internal stability play crucial roles in shaping this reality.

Historical Context

Ethiopia and Eritrea have a complex and often contentious history. Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a long and brutal conflict. The two countries fought a border war from 1998 to 2000, resulting in a significant loss of life and lasting animosity. Any notion of annexation would likely reignite deep-seated tensions that have persisted for decades.

International Law

Annexation of territory is generally considered illegal under international law. The principle of self-determination is a key aspect of international relations, and Eritrea's independence is widely recognized by the international community. Attempting to annex Eritrea would draw strong international condemnation and could lead to further complications in Ethiopia's already delicate diplomatic relations.

Regional Dynamics

The Horn of Africa is a region with complex geopolitical relationships. Any attempt by Ethiopia to annex Eritrea would likely provoke strong reactions from neighboring countries and international actors. This could destabilize the region further, leading to broader geopolitical tensions and potential conflicts.

Economic Considerations

While being landlocked poses economic challenges for Ethiopia, the government has focused on building infrastructure and improving access to ports in neighboring countries such as Djibouti. Investing in these relationships may be seen as a more viable solution than pursuing territorial expansion. Additionally, Ethiopia has faced various internal challenges including ethnic tensions and political instability, which could be further exacerbated by annexation.

Internal Stability

Ethiopia has faced various internal challenges, including ethnic tensions and political instability. Focusing on annexation could distract from or exacerbate these issues, rather than addressing them. The government's priority should be to maintain internal stability and address the root causes of these challenges.

Conclusion

While Ethiopia may seek to enhance its access to the sea, annexation of Eritrea is not a feasible or realistic option given the historical, legal, and geopolitical context. The government of Ethiopia, under Abiy Ahmed, has a complex and challenging task to balance internal and external pressures without resorting to aggressive territorial claims.

Further Reading:
- Ethiopian-Eritrean Border War (1998-2000)
- United Nations and International Law of Annexation
- Regional Dynamics in the Horn of Africa