Finnish and Swedish Attitudes Toward NATO After Joining

Finland and Sweden's decision to join NATO has been a significant shift in both countries' Foreign policies, reflecting a growing sense of security and strategic alignment with their Western allies. This article explores the attitudes of Finnish and Swedish citizens and political leaders towards joining NATO, the impact of Russia's actions on their decisions, and what conclusions can be drawn from their current situation.

Background and Initial Attitudes

Historically, Finland and Sweden were primarily unaligned nations, maintaining their neutrality for over two centuries. This policy was rooted in pragmatic considerations, including preventing conflict with their powerful neighbors, Russia. However, the paradigm shifted dramatically following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its aggressive stance towards neighboring Ukraine and Eastern Europe. Prior to these events, the majority of Finns and Swedes were against joining NATO, with public sentiment hovering around 70% opposing membership.

Triggering Events and Shifts in Opinion

The turning point came with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The attacks and subsequent threats from Russia led to a significant shift in public and political opinion within both countries. Surveys showed that within a few months, the support for NATO membership surged, with over 80% of the population, as well as the majority in parliament, the government, and the president, supporting membership.

Implications and Conditions for Membership

One of the key conditions for NATO membership is that there must be clear proof of national and electoral approval, with citizens being informed about the implications and responsibilities that come with membership. This transparency has been a crucial factor in both Finland and Sweden's decision-making process. However, the prevailing narrative has been that Russia would not allow their membership to proceed without dire consequences.

Current Situations and Putin's Promises

The question of Putin's promises and the potential dire consequences has been a central point of debate. Early speculations suggested that joining NATO would result in severe retaliation from Russia, with Putin's word being seen as unbreakable. Yet, despite both countries' recent accession to NATO, no immediate serious consequences have materialized. This situation has led to mixed reactions and questions about the reliability of Putin's promises.

Some argue that this absence of consequences undermines Putin's credibility and his questionable predictions. Others maintain that the situation is still evolving and that true consequences might manifest in the future. The decision to join NATO, made in light of the conflicts and threats posed by Russia, highlights the complex geopolitical landscape and the evolving nature of alliances in the 21st century.