Will Having Joe Biden at the Top of the Ticket Improve the Democratic Party's Chances of Securing Senate Majority?

When considering the impact of Joe Biden atop the Democratic ticket on the party's chances of securing a Senate majority in the 2020 election, the answer is not as straightforward as it might seem. While it's clear that having Donald Trump as the Republican nominee significantly enhances the Democratic Party’s odds of winning a Senate majority, the same cannot be said for Joe Biden. In reality, the election's outcome is heavily influenced by a myriad of factors, including the incumbent's performance, socio-political conditions, and voter sentiment.

The Devil You Know

For many voters, Joe Biden serves as the "devil you know." Despite some preferential support for Bernie Sanders, it has become increasingly evident that many Democrats see Donald Trump as an equally, if not more, significant threat. Trump’s tendency to be polarizing and his record in office have made him a formidable obstacle. Therefore, turning away from Joe Biden due to concerns about his candidacy would be a calculated risk, especially given the current political landscape.

Moreover, the party will secure some guaranteed votes from loyal Democratic supporters who would vote regardless of the candidate. This is a consistent and reliable group that ensures a base level of support. However, these votes are just the starting point. What truly matters is the swing voter bloc, particularly the undecided voters. It is this undecided segment that has the potential to sway the election in either direction.

Unprecedented and Unsettled Times

Our current times are unprecedented and uncertain. The election is taking place against a backdrop of ongoing issues such as the pandemic, economic instability, and social justice movements. These are critical considerations for many voters, and the performance and charisma of the candidate play a significant role in deciding the outcome. Joe Biden, with his extensive experience and knowledge of policy-making, brings stability and continuity to the table. This factor can appeal to many who are weary of the unknown and prefer a candidate who can effectively navigate through these turbulent times.

The Role of the Incumbent

Historically, elections involving incumbents tend to hinge more on the incumbent’s performance than the challenger’s characteristics. This is often because incumbent records and achievements are well-known, and voters tend to base their decisions on the tangible results of the incumbent's tenure. In the context of the Senate, where individual performances on issues such as healthcare, economic policies, and public works can have direct impacts on constituents, this factor is even more pronounced.

Therefore, it is crucial to analyze how well the current incumbents are performing. If there is a strong record of effective governance and responsive representation, voters are more likely to vote to keep them in office. In the 2020 election, this analysis would involve evaluating the standing of all incumbent senators, including their performance in current polls and their potential continuing support from their respective states.

Another critical factor to consider is voter sentiment. If there is a significant shift in public opinion due to recent events or new information, it could alter the electoral landscape. For instance, Joe Biden’s standing in state polls and potential vice-presidential selections could influence how undecided voters perceive him.

Conclusion

Based on the current political environment and historical trends, it is unlikely that Joe Biden’s candidacy alone will significantly alter the Democratic Party's chances of securing a Senate majority. While voter sentiment is fluid and can change, the decisive factor might well be the performance of current incumbents and how they relate to the incumbent themselves. Conducting a detailed analysis of state-level polls, incumbent performances, and potential shifts in voter opinion would be crucial to understanding the true chances of a Democratic Senate majority in 2020.