Nikki Haley’s Unlikely Bid for the Second Trump Challenge

Theoretically, Nikki Haley might still pull off an upset in New Hampshire and unseat Donald Trump. But realistically, the answer is a resounding no. The race is for second place, to amass as many delegates as possible, and position oneself to step in if something should happen to Trump, such as a legal conviction. However, it seems to be conventional wisdom that Trump is going to be able to get out of legal trouble one way or another. No one has really dealt with the possibility of an actual conviction. While Trump has wiggled his way out of many things, he has suffered some civil defeats, but these seemingly do not really phase him other than he finds it aggravating.

Can Trump be Disqualified?

No, but there is always the possibility that Trump could be disqualified if there is a legal issue that significantly impacts his candidacy. This is a distinct possibility, but it remains to be seen whether this scenario can play out.

Why Nikki Haley’s Chances Are Slender

Nikki Haley lost the race in New Hampshire, the state best suited for her campaign. This loss signals that her path to the nomination is bleak. The other states are far less hospitable to her.

She may be swept from this point forward. The Super Tuesday states include Texas, California, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and Massachusetts. Trump is expected to beat Haley soundly in all six states for Super Tuesday. In these states, Haley has tons of money but lacks the infrastructure to compete effectively:

Texas is the 1st largest state, with Trump polling at around 50%, favored to win. California is the 2nd largest state, with Trump polling around 50%, favored to win. North Carolina is the 9th largest state, with Trump polling above 50%, favored to win. Tennessee is 12th, with Trump polling around 60%, expected to win. Virginia is 15th, with Trump polling around 60%, expected to win. Massachusetts is 16th, with Trump polling around 60%, expected to win.

Key States and Polling Data

Florida is a winner-take-all contest, with Trump polling at over 50% and expected to win. New York is a state where Trump is surpassing 60%, expected to win. Pennsylvania is a winner-take-all contest, with Trump polling around 60% and expected to win. Illinois has Trump surpassing 50%, expected to win. Ohio has Trump approaching 60%, expected to win.

Haley’s shot at winning was New Hampshire, but she lost there. This loss means she will lose the third and fifth largest states in the country and not get one delegate. She is trailing impossibly in the largest, second-largest, fourth-largest, sixth-largest, and seventh-largest states. Even a win in South Carolina - which she will not get - wouldn’t change the math. She doesn’t have the time to come from behind in Texas or California or North Carolina, as losses there will put her impossibly far behind. Similarly, she doesn’t have the time to campaign long enough to reverse her impending losses in Florida or Pennsylvania, either of which would mathematically eliminate her.

After losing in New Hampshire, Republican donors won’t give her a second look. After the loss in South Carolina, there are no more places for Nikki Haley to win. She will lose - and lose resoundingly - in every state after South Carolina.