Is the Russian Invasion to Fix Moldova Really Looming?
At present, the likelihood of Putin invading Moldova seems slim for several reasons. Russia has struggled to sustain a significant military campaign, both in Ukraine and in its own infrastructure. Additionally, the ongoing war has led to considerable loss of both personnel and resources. Russian troops have also been known to focus on neutralizing wounded and diseased soldiers rather than simply killing them, which further strains their operational capabilities. Coupled with these factors, the political situation domestically and within Russia suggests that any such invasion would face substantial challenges.
Potential NATO Involvement and Romanian Military Presence
The only plausible option for Moldova currently would be to request the presence of NATO forces or Romanian troops. Such a move by NATO would likely deter any Russian military action due to lack of a viable invasion force as well as logistical difficulties, with the air being blocked and surface tracks inaccessible.
Historical Context and Russian Logistics Issues
There were earlier plans for a significant amphibious operation in Mykolaiv, with Russian forces aiming to capture Mykolaiv, pivot to Kherson, and then advance west to Odesa and Moldova. However, these plans came to naught due to the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet's landing ships and the tactical blunders surrounding the Snake Island operation. These events essentially sidelined Russian plans for a large-scale invasion of Moldova.
Russian Espionage and Propaganda
Russia has been engaging in espionage activities, sending FSB agents and Spetsnaz to Moldova with the goal of inciting civil unrest and facilitating regime change. Despite the efforts, many of these operatives have been neutralized. Moldova and Ukraine are also actively discussing strategies to address the Russian military presence in Transnistria. President Zelenskyy has expressed willingness to launch an offensive to drive out the Russian troops, a move that would significantly weaken Russia's strategic position in the region.
Recent Russian Propaganda and Strategic Considerations
Russian propaganda has been attempting to justify potential losses in Transnistria, spreading false flag narratives to prepare the Russian populace for such scenarios. The aim is to establish plausible deniability in case of any setbacks in their ongoing conflict.
Given these complex geopolitical dynamics, the immediate threat of a full-scale Russian invasion of Moldova remains low. However, vigilance is warranted as ongoing tensions and isolated provocations may still occur.