Prediction: The Future of British Politics after Theresa May's Resignation

Theresa May's Resignation and Boris Johnson's Ascension

Theresa May, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, will resign next week on July 24th, 2019. Her departure marks the conclusion of a challenging tenure characterized by high political drama, particularly surrounding the Brexit negotiations.

The transition to a new leader is expected to be swift. Keir Starmer, the current Labour leader, has taken the frontrunner position in the race to replace Mrs. May. However, the political landscape in the Conservative Party is set to change dramatically as Boris Johnson emerges as the most likely candidate to lead the party and ultimately the country.

The Road Ahead for Boris Johnson

Once announced, Boris Johnson will formally tender his resignation to the Queen at Buckingham Palace. This will be followed by a public appearance at the palace, where the Queen is expected to challenge him with a provocative and emblematic phrase. Her advice to Johnson is likely to be straightforward yet critical, emphasizing his responsibility to obtain the confidence of Parliament.

Potential Scenarios and Political Maneuvering

Boris Johnson's path to becoming the next Prime Minister will be neither smooth nor straightforward. Upon taking office, he is expected to face several immediate challenges:

Political Realignment: Boris Johnson has the support of a majority in the House of Commons to form a government. His primary goal will be demonstrating his ability to command the confidence of the majority. This will require delicate political maneuvering and the support of several key Conservative MPs who oppose a no-deal Brexit.

Preventing No-Deal Brexit: Tory rebels will do everything in their power to prevent a no-deal Brexit. However, their strategy may involve voting with the opposition only if it is their last resort. Achieving a 'soft' Brexit is still seen as the preferred outcome for many within the Conservative Party.

Minority Wins: There is a possibility that Boris Johnson could secure minor changes to the Political Declaration, which he could then present as a renegotiation success to gain support from MPs who are wary of other potential outcomes.

Theatrical Pivot: In an unlikely scenario, Johnson might pivot to propose a Final Say Referendum, which could prompt the Queen to grant an extension. However, this would be a last-resort measure.

Timeline and Potential General Election

Boris Johnson is expected to serve as Prime Minister for approximately three months before his government falls. This timeline sets the stage for a general election, which may be necessary to solidify his position in Parliament and the country.

Overall, the future of British politics under Boris Johnson is likely to be marked by intense political debates and negotiations. The path to a stable and effective government remains uncertain, but key decisions and events over the next few months will shape the direction of the United Kingdom.