Putin’s Dilemma: Consequences of Widespread Protests in Russia Against the Ukraine War
The Global Response to Putin’s Invasion
When American or Western families protested multiple illegal wars by the USA and its NATO allies, the global response was swift and vocal. This unprecedented wave of protest was a stark reminder that the international community would not remain silent in the face of wrongdoing. Despite the initial fervor, the results of these protests were often limited, with some governments choosing to ignore or dismiss the concerns raised.
Putin’s Response to Potential Protests
Predominantly, the Russian state apparatus has around 500,000 secret police officers, a vastly trained security force. If the Russian people were to gather in large numbers to protest the ongoing war in Ukraine, the regime has a ready response at hand. They would swiftly round up the protesters, many of whom would face severe consequences. For others, especially those caught in the front lines, the risk of being amassed for combat is high. If the war has depleted Russia's military resources, the regime could very well resort to the use of force, as seen in various authoritarian regimes around the world.
Potential End to the War
Precisely, while Putin seeks to end the war, his strategy appears to be deliberately prolonging it. By provoking the adversary and making it appear as though Russia is losing, Putin hopes to tire out the opposition and force a negotiation. However, such a protracted war not only risks destabilizing the regime but also highlights the potential consequences if large-scale protests erupt. This strategy might work, but the longer the war continues, the more evident the socio-economic strain becomes for the Russian people.
Public Mood and Economic Consequences
Public opinion in Russia is beginning to shift. The images of destruction and death in Ukraine are having a humanistic effect, leading to compassion and empathy for the Ukrainian people. The financial and military burden of the war is becoming increasingly evident, with war expenses spreading across the state budget. As the war concludes, the state will need to focus on rebuilding its defenses and infrastructure, further straining the economy and leading to increased taxation. Ordinary Russians are likely to bear the brunt of these costs, while political leaders will continue to exploit the situation to strengthen their grip on power.
Protests and Putin’s Power Dynamics
Protests in Russia are not a new phenomenon but have historically been met with severe crackdowns. In the past, direct interventions by the state have suppressed any form of dissent, as seen with the arrest of 1600 individuals on the first day of protests. These measures are not just to stifle dissent but to maintain the regime's control over the population.
Should the Russian people decide to protest on a massive scale, Putin and his regime would face a pressing dilemma. If protesters start demanding change and criticize Putin directly, they risk direct intervention and severe punishment. Conversely, if protests continue to occur, Putin’s legitimacy and the stability of his regime could be further eroded. In such a scenario, Putin would likely look to consolidate his power by launching a series of internal crackdowns, fortifying regions under his control, and extracting more resources from Ukraine to bolster his regime’s survival.
Conclusion
The potential for widespread protests in Russia is a serious concern for Putin. If protests increase in frequency and scale, they could fundamentally undermine the regime's authority and divert focus from the war in Ukraine. The key factor undergirding this discussion is that no windfall of international support or immediate cessation of sanctions will be enough to quell this potential crisis. Putin must carefully navigate the complex political landscape, both domestically and internationally, to mitigate the risks and maintain his grip on power.