Russia's Likely Response to Ukraine's Use of ATACMS Missiles

In response to Ukraine's deployment of ATACMS (Advanced Tactical Missile System) missiles in occupied Crimea, one might be tempted to disbelieve that an actual, effective military response from Russia would follow suit. However, Russia's historical and ongoing tactics suggest a condensed response that may or may not translate into tangible actions.

The Truth About ATACMS

It is important to clarify the myths and facts surrounding the ATACMS missiles. Contrary to claims that they are 'long-range,' ATACMS are indeed short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) with a maximum operational range of 300 kilometers. This incorrect assertion was made in the initial phase, but now it's time to focus on the reality of their deployment and potential consequences.

Historical Context and Russia's Motivation

Russia has already employed much of its arsenal in the ongoing conflict against Ukraine, short of using nuclear weapons. Given this constraint, any future action or response from Russia may include a mix of diplomatic posturing and limited military strikes, much akin to the exaggerated bluster and posturing we have seen in the past.

Exaggerated Russian Responses

When faced with such a situation, Russia is likely to follow its usual pattern of overreaction. The steps they may take include:

Claiming that the strikes amount to an act of war by NATO Exaggerating the interception capabilities, insisting that missiles were intercepted and posing damage Intensifying rhetoric, asserting that no damage was caused and quickly repairing any perceived damage (if any)

It's also common for them to issue a series of vague threats, warning parties that the situation is very dangerous and that proper precautions must be taken. However, these threats would not necessarily translate into military action.

Expected Russian Countermeasures

Given Russia's historical response patterns, one can expect a similar mix of actions and countermeasures to those employed in the past. They are likely to:

Issue stern warnings emphasizing the dangers and warning against further escalation

Augment support for hybrid warfare and terrorist actions aimed at civilian and critical infrastructure in Ukraine.

Embarrass nationalist sentiments that have gained momentum in the region, potentially provoking reactions from the Ukrainian populace.

In line with their recent actions, Russia may also:

Challenge the legitimacy of NATO's ongoing aid to Ukraine.

Threaten to use nuclear weapons, which could prove to be more of a deterrent than an actual deterrent, ultimately leading to embarrassment if they follow through.

Proactively position more nuclear weapons in Belarus to further deter NATO actions against Russia.

Conclusion

Given the above points, Russia's actual response to Ukraine's ATACMS missile deployment can likely be anticipated to involve a mixture of increased rhetoric and limited military measures. While they may attempt to justify further actions, it is unlikely that they will follow through with anything substantial beyond more empty threats. The effectiveness of their claims will rest largely in their ability to exacerbate tensions and escalate the situation further.