Why Did Russia Support Azerbaijan Against Armenia in the Karabakh Conflict?

The conflict over Karabakh, a region with a complicated history and contested territorial status, has been a subject of intense geopolitical maneuvering. Often, the question arises: why would Russia, a close ally of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, support Azerbaijan against Armenia? To understand this complex situation, it is essential to delve into the strategic context and the interests at play.

History and Topography of the Region

The Karabakh conflict began in the early 1990s with the break-up of the Soviet Union, but the roots of the dispute date back much further. The region, known as Nagorny Karabakh, is predominantly Armenian-populated but has been under Azerbaijani control since the mid-19th century. The topography of the region, with its strategic mountain passes and mineral resources, adds another layer of complexity.

Geopolitical Interests and Relations

Russia's role in the region is multifaceted. Historically, Russia has strong ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia was a Soviet Republic, while Azerbaijan is also a former Soviet republic, and both have Russian military bases on their territories. However, the situation in 2024 has shifted significantly.

Armenia's Pro-Western Alignment

America's Armenia, the leadership under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has aligned itself more closely with Western countries and NATO. This realignment has put Armenia on a different trajectory from Russia, leading to tension in their relationship.

Azerbaijan's Close Ties with Russia

In contrast, the leadership in Azerbaijan, under President Ilham Aliyev, has focused on building strong ties with Russia. Aliyev has made a significant effort to maintain good relations with Putin and has positioned Azerbaijan as a strategic ally.

Russia's Diverse Alliances and Interests in the Region

Russia's support for Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict can be understood through the lens of its broader strategic interests. For Russia, maintaining good relations with Turkey, a key NATO ally, is a critical factor. Turkey has become a strategic ally of Azerbaijan, enhancing their military and economic cooperation.

Russia also has a vested interest in preventing the spread of chaos and instability in the Caucasus region. By supporting Azerbaijan, Russia can mitigate spillover effects that might impact its operations in Syria and other regions.

Strategic Calculus

The argument that Russia's support for Azerbaijan is not driven by any inherent desire to support Armenia's enemy is valid. In the absence of a strong and clear rationale, Russia might be seen as choosing stability and prevent the escalation of conflict that could harm its broader regional interests.

Conclusion

The Karabakh conflict is a complex geopolitical issue, with multiple layers of history, ethnicity, and strategic alliances. Russia’s support for Azerbaijan, rather than Armenia, can be explained by its strategic interests in maintaining regional stability and balanced ties with key players, including NATO members.

As the region continues to evolve, understanding the intersecting interests of all parties involved will be crucial for any resolution to the conflict.

Related Articles

For more insights into the Karabakh conflict and its geopolitical implications, consider reading the following articles:

The Future of the Karabakh Conflict: Prospects and Challenges NATO's Role in the Caucasus: Balancing Interests and Alliances Russia's Strategic Interests in the Southern Caucasus