Introduction
The recent focus of Russian aggression towards Mykolaiv, a major port city in southern Ukraine, suggests their strategic intention to disrupt Ukraine's grain exports, a critical commodity for the country's economy. This article seeks to discuss the feasibility of a potential ground or amphibious attack on Odessa and the broader context of Russia's ongoing attempts to control grain exports.
Feasibility of Ground or Amphibious Attack on Odesa
IP37 confirms that a ground or amphibious attack on Odesa would be largely impractical and almost certainly doomed to fail. The geographic and logistical challenges, compounded by the resolve of Ukrainian forces, make such an operation unfeasible.
Russian Targeting Strategy
Instead of direct military engagement, Russia is employing a strategy that targets port facilities and grain storage facilities in southern Ukraine, including Mykolaiv and Kherson. This approach is intended to undermine Ukraine’s economy by preventing the export of grain and food commodities, such as sunflower oil.
By focusing on civilian infrastructure like grain silos and undermining the economy, the Russian tactics aim to create conditions that could lead to food shortages and even famine, thereby increasing pressure on Ukraine to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Uran’s Strategic Objectives and Putin's Gambit
President Vladimir Putin’s strategy involve focusing on grain exports as a key leverage point. Interrupting these exports could force Ukraine to capitulate to Russia's demands, which would allow Putin to save face without having to formally surrender. The objective, as per strategic analysts, is to induce enough suffering among the population through grain shortages to compel political changes in Ukraine.
Current Military Attitudes and Actions
Russia's actions in targeting grain silos and civilian facilities like shopping malls are indicative of their frustration. These actions, while aimed at disrupting trade, also demonstrate a tantrum-like behavior, driven by a need to exert control over Ukraine's strategic assets.
Despite these efforts, Russia has faced significant setbacks. Their attempted direct military engagement, as in the early stages of the conflict, has failed. The loss of strategic positions like Bakhmut and the retreat from western Kherson have further limited their capabilities.
Orwellian Shifts in Strategy
There were initial plans for a major assault on Odessa in March 2022. The invasion plan, which included an advance to Moldova and linking up with Russian forces in Transnistria, was only thwarted by the failure of ground forces in western Kherson and the precision strikes on the Russian amphibious assault force, particularly in Berdyansk, which sank the Saratov and severely damaged other ships.
Today, Russia lacks the capability to execute a similar amphibious invasion, and their forces in the region are more entrenched in fixed fortifications. These strategic retreats and the inability to conduct amphibious operations mean that the likelihood of a direct attack on Odessa is extremely low.
In conclusion, Russia's strategy is more about creating economic pressure and suffering through the disruption of grain exports, rather than direct military conquest. The inability to execute a ground or amphibious attack on Odesa underscores the reality that a comprehensive military solution to the conflict remains elusive.