Sachin Pilot and BJP: A Revolt Without Substance
A significant discussion surrounds the issue of whether Sachin Pilot is conspiring with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but all the arguments lack substance. The real battle is between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Congress High Command. Ashok Gehlot is adamantly trying to prove his worth in running the government and ensure that the party leadership does not consider Sachin Pilot's demands.
Why Sachin Pilot Is Not Suited for BJP
The fundamental reason why Sachin Pilot is not a suitable candidate for the BJP is the numerical disparity in the assembly. BJP currently has only 72 members in the assembly and requires additional 30 more members (MLAs) to form its own government. This is impossible unless a legally valid division within the Congress Legislature Party occurs, where at least 72 MLAs decide to leave the Congress party.
Moreover, although Sachin Pilot is the State President, he does not have the necessary numbers of MLAs to make this happen. Any strategy involving resignations, similar to those in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, would not work in Rajasthan due to the composition of the current assembly. Even if Sachin Pilot and his 19 supporters resign, BJP would still need at least 50 more Congress MLAs to form its government. Given the current independent members, BJP faces a substantial gap.
The Irrelevant Role of Ashok Gehlot and Supportive Independents
Ashok Gehlot, the current Chief Minister, is a formidable force for now. Despite Sachin Pilot being the State President, Ashok Gehlot managed to nominate many of his own supporters. Moreover, several independent MLAs, estimated to be 11 of 13, are loyal to Ashok Gehlot and pose significant challenges to Sachin Pilot's plans.
The BJP's cadres would not accept a defector as their Chief Ministerial face, particularly one from another party. Sarbananda Sonowal's rise in Assam is a notable exception because he joined BJP well before his influential roles. This highlights the nepotism and internal dynamics within the BJP, which would reject Sachin Pilot's candidacy.
Sachin Pilot's Personal Motives and Caste Dynamics
Sachin Pilot's revolt is primarily driven by his desire to escape the influence of Ashok Gehlot. His role as both the State President and Deputy Chief Minister has stoked this ambition. Caste plays a vital role in politics, but Sachin Pilot's community is limited to the Dausa region, which limits his universal appeal. His family moved there due to political reasons, and he gained popularity locally. However, his background as a former Congress member and former State President creates a complex political history that his supporters must navigate carefully.
Political analysts often overlook the reality that no regional party has achieved significant success in Rajasthan beyond certain limitations. Caste, regionalism, and loyalty play crucial roles in the state's politics. Sachin Pilot's future remains secure as long as he remains part of a large national party. If he wishes to rise in stature, he should consider resigning from Congress and joining the BJP as an ordinary member. In BJP, he would receive respect and recognition befitting his role.
In conclusion, the narrative surrounding Sachin Pilot's potential defection to BJP lacks substantial evidence. The real struggle lies within the Congress party, with Ashok Gehlot defending his position while ensuring the party remains united under his command.