Should Russia Annex Latvia Given Significant Ethnic Russian Communities?
Discussions around Russian communities in Latvia often delve into whether Russia should annex Latvia. The premise is often based on historical precedents where significant ethnic groups live in a country. However, it's crucial to understand the geopolitical context and the potential consequences of such an action.
Unification vs. Annexation: Firstly, it's essential to distinguish between the terms unification and annexation. Unification refers to the voluntary joining of two or more entities, such as states, into a single entity. Annexation, on the other hand, is a forcible incorporation of one state or territory into another, often by military force.
Historical Precedents
The case of Sweden annexing Latvia again out of historical habit may seem plausible, given its previous actions. However, there are significant differences. After 50 years, Sweden would have a considerable number of Swedish and/or English-speaking people even without annexation. This is more convenient for Sweden since it is part of NATO, and so would Latvia if annexed. NATO countries would not resent this internal addition, as it aligns with their strategic interests.
Risks and Consequences
Should Russia attempt to annex Latvia in the manner it did with Crimea, NATO would respond with military action. The situation is entirely different from unification. In the case of unification, contacts and existing ties between ethnic groups could facilitate such a process. However, Russia annexed Crimea by force, leading to a heated international response and sanctions. Any annexation of Latvia would similarly trigger intense conflict.
Latvia gained independence after the dissolution of the USSR, and it chose to remain an independent nation. Today, there isn't a strong appetite among Latvians for reunification with Russia. The situation in some parts of Latvia with predominant Russian populations would face significant challenges, as they would not be allowed to break away without the permission of the Latvian government.
Ethical and Political Implications
Should Russia annex Latvia, the immediate consequence would be increased conflict. This action would place substantial pressure on Russia without offering much in return. It would come at a great cost to Russia and its people, without any tangible benefits. This consideration is especially pertinent given the current political climate, which views Russia as a significant geopolitical threat.
Comparison with Historical Precedents
Comparing Russia’s actions to those of Nazi Germany annexing Austria or Russia's recent actions in Crimea, we see clear parallels. Both cases involved the forcible incorporation of territories and populations under the influence of a dominant power. Russia’s approach is seen as a 21st-century manifestation of similar aggressive tactics reminiscent of historical fascist states.
Conclusion
Given the significant geopolitical risks and the historical precedents, it's clear that Russia annexing Latvia would not be a feasible or desirable solution. It would lead to more conflict, restrictions, and come at a high cost with little return for the effort expended. Instead, the focus should be on peaceful coexistence and understanding among nations, respecting their sovereignty and territorial integrity.