Strategic Implications of the Potential Destruction of the Kerch Bridge on the Conflict in Crimea

The Kerch Bridge, a vital transport link connecting the Russian mainland to the Crimea Peninsula, has become a focal point in the ongoing conflict. According to The Economist, the strategic implications of this infrastructure target are profound, with both strategic and economic consequences for Russia and Ukraine.

Leveraging the Kerch Bridge: A Liability for Putin

The article highlights that Ukraine is adopting a strategy to make the Kerch Bridge a liability rather than an asset for Russia. This approach is underpinned by the efforts of various Ukrainian forces, particularly those utilizing advanced weaponry and technology, to disrupt and destroy the bridge.

Ben Hodges, a former commander of American forces in Europe and a senior adviser to NATO on logistics, is quoted in the article, emphasizing that Ukraine's strategic objective is to isolate the peninsula economically and militarily. This can be achieved by disabling key infrastructure, including the Kerch Bridge, which is crucial for the transportation of troops and supplies.

Ukraine has already demonstrated its ability to target Russian assets, notably the Franco-British Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles and its own naval drones. These weapons have successfully damaged Russian warships, including the large Ropucha landing ships, which are critical for military transport. The article mentions that at least half of the Russian Black Sea Fleet may have been disabled by Ukrainian drones and missiles. The rest of the fleet has been forced to relocate from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, a mainland port more than 300 km away.

On May 17th, a railway station, a power plant, and a naval base were also damaged by drones, further disrupting Russian logistics and supply chains.

Potential Challenges in Destroying the Kerch Bridge

While the Ukrainian military is making strides in disrupting key infrastructure, there are specific challenges to considering the Kerch Bridge for destruction. Hodges expresses confidence in Ukraine's ability to maintain disruption, but he warns that potentially more difficult is the destruction of a newly improved railway line along the Azov Sea, running from Russia’s Rostov through southern Ukrainian cities Mariupol and Berdiansk to Crimea.

Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defence Forces South, believes that the railway along the land corridor is a recognition from the Russian occupiers that the Crimean Kerch Bridge is destined to be destroyed. This sentiment underscores the evolving strategy and the increasing focus on disrupting transportation links rather than occupying territory.

Strategic Success Indicators

The success of the Ukrainian campaign in Crimea may be gauged this summer, when Russian holidaymakers typically use the Kerch Bridge to visit the peninsula's resorts. If the bridge is destroyed or significantly damaged, and Russian tourists decide not to travel to Crimea, this could be a significant blow to Putin's strategy. The journal points out that the tourism industry is crucial for the Peninsula, and last year saw a decrease of almost 50% in bookings.

Technical Analysis and Misconceptions

While the Ukrainian efforts are recognized, the article also cites a critique from an anonymous source. The source argues that the discussions about the Kerch Bridge are a "Strange Obsession" and that attacking it is merely annoying for Russia and depletes Ukraine's stock of advanced missiles. The source claims that modern war tactics, such as "Blitzkrieg," do not work in contemporary conflicts due to the limited advantages of asymmetric warfare.

The article concludes that Western media discussions about the Ukraine war are delusional, citing instances where Ukraine claims to 'destroy the entire Russian Black Sea Fleet,' which then resumes operations after what is described as a 'refreshed' fleet. The source further contends that the inability to understand Russia's war strategy is partly due to racism and a lack of coping with reality.

The discussion around the Kerch Bridge and the broader conflict in Crimea highlights the complexity of modern warfare and the evolving tactics employed by both sides. As the situation continues to evolve, the strategic implications of actions such as the destruction of key infrastructure will remain a critical factor in the conflict.

Key Points

Hodges: Ukrainian forces are making strides in disrupting key infrastructure The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been heavily targeted, with at least half disabled Ukrainian forces successfully targeted a railway and power plant in May Attacking the Kerch Bridge could be financially and strategically detrimental to Russia Western media's understanding of Russian tactics is criticized as delusional and based on misconceptions

By analyzing these points, it becomes clear that the potential destruction of the Kerch Bridge could have significant implications for the ongoing conflict in Crimea, impacting both military and economic strategies.