The Brexit Conundrum: Would a Second Referendum in Northern Ireland Change the UK’s Fate?

Following the January 2020 Brexit, both Scotland and Northern Ireland found themselves intricately bound to the European Union (EU). Despite their desire to remain, their votes were overshadowed by the UK's overall outcome. Yet, the question persistently emerges: if a second referendum were to take place in Northern Ireland with a result to remain in the EU, would the UK still be compelled to leave both Scotland and Northern Ireland?

Understanding the Current Context

Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are integral parts of the United Kingdom, which together with England and Wales, collectively left the EU. To ensure that the Belfast Agreement (also known as the Good Friday Agreement) remained intact and to minimize the potential of a hard border on the island of Ireland, a unique arrangement was established. This includes Northern Ireland remaining closely aligned with the EU in several aspects, ensuring a smooth transition and maintaining the peace accord.

The Power of the Majority Vote

The UK's decision to leave the EU was based on a simple majority, meaning the result applied to the entire UK, irrespective of the diverse opinions within its constituent nations. This implies that despite Northern Ireland's 2016 referendum result, which favored staying in the EU, the UK as a whole voted to leave, making this outcome legally binding. Similarly, Scotland was bound by the UK-wide decision and thus had to follow suit.

No Autonomy over Brexit in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland lacks the autonomy to determine its own Brexit stance. Therefore, its 2016 referendum to remain in the EU holds little constitutional significance. The UK's overall Brexit decision has prioritized the overarching agreement and the welfare of the entire United Kingdom, including the delicate balance with Ireland.

Scotland’s Situation

Scotland faced a similar scenario. Due to the UK-wide referendum result, Scotland was forced to leave the EU even though many Scots preferred to stay. The UK Withdrawal Agreement and the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) now dictate Scotland's relationship with the EU.

A Speculative Scenario: A Second Referendum in Northern Ireland

It is instructive to consider a hypothetical scenario: if a second referendum were held in Northern Ireland with a result favoring staying in the EU. Even in this theoretical situation, the UK's departure from the EU would not be immediately altered. The Brexit decision is a unified one for the entire United Kingdom, and the outcome would still stand.

Rethinking the Components of the United Kingdom

The question arises: why would someone contemplate such a scenario without a solid understanding of the UK's structure? Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are part of the UK, and their departure from the EU occurred simultaneously with the rest of the country. The EU's current economic challenges, coupled with its ongoing trade disputes with the USA, highlight why focusing on the larger picture might be more practical.

Conclusion

The UK's decision to leave the EU is a reality that has already been officially recognized and implemented. It is essential to understand the broader implications of walking away from a major trading bloc and the impact on the UK's economy and international relationships. Whether a second referendum in Northern Ireland changes the UK's course remains hypothetical, but the current legal and political frameworks are firmly in place.

Keywords: Brexit, Northern Ireland, UK