The Ceasefire Agreement Between Israel and Hamas: A Comprehensive Analysis

After an 11-day military confrontation between Israel and Hamas, a ceasefire agreement was finally reached on May 20, 2021, which came into effect on May 21, 2021. This agreement was mediated by the Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and supported by the United States. The conflict was sparked by Israeli police actions in the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the threat to Palestinian families in the Sheikh Jarrah locality of East Jerusalem.

What Led to the Ceasefire?

Israel: There were three main reasons for Israel's acquiescence to the ceasefire:

International pressure: Israel faced increasing civilian casualties in Gaza, leading to a humanitarian crisis. Many democratic politicians in the US urged Biden to force Israel to cease hostilities. The UN also called for a ceasefire. Dominant internal strife: Israel was dealing with rising confrontations between Jews and Arabs in mixed cities. Additionally, there were protests against Israel in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Strategic objectives: Israel aimed to significantly damage Hamas' military infrastructure and tunnels, ensuring future deterrence for Hamas.

Hamas: Two primary reasons led Hamas to agree to the ceasefire:

Loss of men and materials: Despite high civilian casualties, Hamas suffered significant losses. Continued fighting would have resulted in even greater damage that would be difficult to rebuild. Political messaging: Hamas wanted to portray itself as a savior of Islam and its holy places, Al-Aqsa. By continuing to launch rockets, Hamas conveyed this message to Palestinians and other Islamic nations.

Who Gained What from This Confrontation?

Surprisingly, both sides claimed victory from this military confrontation. Here's how:

Israel:

The narrative that Israel was a victim of terrorist rocket attacks was successfully promoted. This was particularly effective in the US and European countries. Netanyahu claimed that Israel killed 225 active commanders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, an Iran-supported militant group. He also stated that Israel had "set Hamas back by years" and achieved a "forceful deterrence" for the future. Netanyahu also mentioned that the option for a ground offensive remained open, and the ceasefire's continuation depended on the situation in the upcoming weeks.

However, some conservative elements within Israel criticized Netanyahu for declaring a ceasefire prematurely without completely eliminating Hamas.

Hamas:

Hamas and its supporters claimed victory in their resistance against Israel. They claimed that Israel agreed to distance itself from the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Sheikh Jarrah issue. However, Israel denied these claims, and the statement from the Egyptian President suggests that both sides needed to negotiate further for a lasting ceasefire. The most notable gain for Hamas is its emergence as a savior of Palestinians and their religious places. This has likely increased Hamas' popularity and support among Palestinians, posing challenges for its rival, al-Fateh.

Conclusion

This is the fourth ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas since 2007. While both sides claim victory, lasting peace will depend on the resolution of the Palestinian conflict. However, Israel and other countries are unlikely to negotiate with Hamas, a militant organization. Without Hamas, there cannot be a lasting solution to this issue, which remains the biggest hurdle in resuming negotiations to resolve it.

As the situation evolves, continued dialogue and international support will be crucial to finding a lasting peace that benefits both Israelis and Palestinians.