The Consequences of Russia's Bombardment on Ukraine: Depleted Arsenal and Broader Strategic Shift
Recent news has highlighted the implications of Russia's unprecedented mass attack on Ukraine, which involved the use of 110 missiles. While President Putin has been known to shoot himself in the foot with his military strategies, the current bombardment appears to be another example of such a miscalculation. This article delves into the potential consequences of this action for both military and economic reasons.
Potential Military Implications
Early analyses suggest that Putin's tactics, which primarily involve terror bombing civilian targets and deploying vast quantities of personnel and materiel in slow, grinding assaults, have proven to be ineffective. The short-term destruction caused by these attacks may serve to inconvenience and cause tragedy, but they are unlikely to sway public opinion against their government or alter the stance of Western allies.
However, the overnight barrage of missiles and drones on Ukraine may have some unexpected consequences. Not only is Germany expected to deliver the five promised Patriot missile systems that were originally argued for by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but faster deliveries of other systems such as NASAMS, HAWKs, IRIS T-SLM, IRIS T-SLS, and Gepard are likely to be expedited. This could potentially enhance Ukraine's defensive capabilities and bolster its ability to counter future attacks.
Strategic Depletion of Russian Arsenal
The use of a significant portion of Russia's missile and drone inventory during this attack could have serious strategic implications. It may lead to a temporary reduction in the number of attacks in the short term, but at a very high cost. Preliminary estimates from Forbes suggest that the cost of this latest military expenditure could reach 1.3 billion dollars. This sum represents a substantial portion of Russia's financial reserves and could potentially impact future military operations.
Broadening the Scope of the Conflict
The latest bombardment may also signal a broader strategic shift. By targeting Ukrainian defenses through increased attacks, it could push President Biden to reconsider the US prohibition on the use of Western weapon systems against targets in Russia. These targets, such as bases used for bombers, weapon factories, and munitions storage facilities, are critical to extending the reach of Russian influence from a 'safe' distance.
To address these targets within Russian territory would be a significant step towards shortening the war, rather than escalating it. Advocates of this approach argue that it will facilitate the end of the conflict, which is already highly escalated. With this in mind, the recent military strategy may be seen as a miscalculation that could undermine Russia's broader strategic goals.
Conclusion
The mass attack on Ukraine reveals a series of unintended consequences for Russia. While it may temporarily enhance Ukraine's defensive capabilities and lead to a reduction in short-term attacks, the financial and strategic costs are high. Moreover, it may ultimately push the US and its allies to take a more direct role in the conflict, potentially leading to a more comprehensive and rapid resolution of the war.
The implications of these actions are far-reaching and underscore the complexity of modern military conflicts. As the situation continues to evolve, it is crucial to remain vigilant and adaptable to the changing dynamics of the conflict.