The Future of US States: Montana and Wyoming in 50 Years

The stability of US states, such as Montana and Wyoming, is a subject of ongoing discussion. Given the nation's historical precedent and current political landscape, it is highly unlikely that any of these states will disappear within the next 25 to 50 years.

Geological Stability

The natural landscape within the boundaries of Montana and Wyoming will remain largely unchanged. Geologically, the terrain that underlies these states is stable and will persist, regardless of governmental changes.

Political Motivation

The political motivation to keep the states intact is significant. Republicans, who currently dominate in states like Montana and Wyoming, would have a strategic interest in maintaining their current number of senators. Merging states would dilute the political influence of these red states in the US Senate, making it less likely for them to gain a majority.

Population Growth and State Dynamics

As the population of the United States continues to grow, it is reasonable to expect that the number of states may also increase. Since 2000, the U.S. has grown by about one million people each year, adding to the total population. This growth means that the political landscape is also evolving, but not in a way that would lead to the disappearance of states.

Unprecedented Events and Future Scenarios

While the concept of a state disappearing is generally considered unlikely, there are rare, catastrophic events that could theoretically lead to such a scenario. Major geological events like supervolcanic eruptions and earthquakes could have significant effects:

Supervolcano Under Yellowstone

The Yellowstone supervolcano has erupted on a very long cycle, though the next event is not imminent. An eruption of this scale would blanket much of the region, including significant portions of Montana and Wyoming, with several feet of volcanic ash, essentially rendering these states uninhabitable for a considerable period. Some maps suggest that such an eruption could have far-reaching impacts, potentially affecting other states as well.

Geological Fault Lines and Seismic Activity

The San Andreas fault line poses another risk. Major earthquakes in this region could potentially reduce the western third of California, causing significant upheaval but not necessarily eliminating the state. Additionally, underwater landslides off the Spanish coast could trigger massive tsunami waves, affecting coastal states in the Atlantic and Gulf regions.

Global Climate Change

The impact of global climate change could either benefit or harm certain states. For instance, higher CO2 levels and global warming are expected to help northern states in the US, potentially creating more favorable conditions similar to those in the past. Conversely, a new Ice Age could contribute to the formation of massive glaciers in the northern regions, similar to the scenarios depicted in movies like “The Day After Tomorrow.”

In conclusion, while the future is uncertain, the likelihood of any US state disappearing in the next 25 to 50 years is negligible. The states that exist today will likely continue to do so, with the possibility of some minor political or environmental changes along the way. The natural and political landscapes are complex, but the future stability of states like Montana and Wyoming remains robust.