The Potential Collapse of Ukraine if Russia Wins Invasion

Should Russia achieve a successful invasion of Ukraine, the consequences for the latter's status would be dire. Historical precedents, particularly the aftermath of Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Chechen conflicts, offer profound insights into the likely scenario.

Precedents from Afghanistan and Chechnya

The outcome of an invasion similar to that of Afghanistan, post-Soviet withdrawal, or the Chechen wars could paint a bleak picture for Ukraine. In both cases, regions that experienced heavy fighting were left with devastated infrastructure, widespread poverty, and a dire humanitarian crisis. Buildings crumbled, civilian lives were lost, and the demand for humanitarian aid skyrocketed, while the population sought to escape the turmoil or preserve their wealth.

Pro-Russian Puppet Governments and Economic Sanctions

If Russia were to annex territories in Ukraine, it would install pro-Russian puppet governments to control the region. Such puppet rulers would be subordinate to Moscow, severely limiting Ukraine's autonomy and sovereignty. Economically, Russia would impose stringent control over resources, effectively stripping the country of its natural wealth. This control would not only diminish Ukraine's strategic importance but also plunge it into an impoverished state, similar to Chechnya's situation after Russian intervention. Additionally, declaring a crisis situation would enable Russia to provide minimal support, if any, to the Ukrainian population, ensuring further decline.

Resistance and Counter-Incursions

Ukrainian military actions targeting Russia are symbolic and aim to undermine Putin's authority, not to capture and occupy Russian territory. These incursions are designed to pressure Putin and create unrest in Russia, not to expand Ukrainian borders. However, as the conflict continues, Ukraine's relentless attacks on Russian refineries underscore the extent to which they are willing to go. By targeting key sectors of the Russian economy, Ukraine significantly impacts Russia's GDP, pushing the nation into further economic and social turmoil. Putin is increasingly seen as the biggest enemy of Russia, and his removal is critical to the nation's survival and prosperity. As more educated and professional Russians flee the country, the rebuilding process will be slow and arduous.

The Decline of Russia

The prolonged war has resulted in a catastrophic loss of life, with countless Russian families suffering the loss of loved ones. The cream of Russia's educational and professional class have departed the country, exacerbating the challenge of rebuilding. The invasion has exposed the inadequacy of Russian military equipment and greatly diminished Russia's standing as a global power. Economically, the situation is dire, and the country's youth, economy, and trade capabilities are being eroded. Putin is condemned as a psychopathic leader, placing him in the company of historical despots like Pol Pot and Adolf Hitler, all of whom have left lasting legacies of brutality and destruction. The 21st century will likely be marked by Russia's decline, with Putin bearing significant blame for this catastrophic failure of leadership.

In conclusion, a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine would result in a devastated, impoverished, and economically crippled state, with dire implications for Russian society. The path to recovery would be long and uncertain, and the legacy of Putin's presidency is set to leave a lasting impact on the region and the world stage.