Did Angela Merkel Underestimate Her Refugee Policy?

Germany, as a federal republic, features a complex political landscape where power centers are distributed. The role of the Chancellor, like the one occupied by Angela Merkel, is not that of a single decision-maker, akin to the British Prime Minister, the French President, or the U.S. President. Instead, Chancellor Merkel stands out due to her remarkable skills in balancing and unifying diverse interests. This ability extends both nationally and at the EU level, demonstrating her strategic prowess and diplomatic dexterity. However, in the context of the refugee crisis, the question of whether she underestimated the policy’s implications warrants scrutiny.

German Political Elite’s Misperception

The term “her refugee policies” might be misleading, as it simplifies a multifaceted decision-making process involving various entities within the German political system. A more accurate framing of the question would be: Did the German political elite underestimate something related to the massive influx of refugees from war-stricken regions such as the Middle East, North Africa, and Afghanistan?

The answer is unequivocally yes. The German political elite miscalculated several critical aspects of the situation. This misperception led to significant challenges, particularly in terms of internal division within the EU and throughout Germany. The failure to anticipate these repercussions was a crucial oversight.

The Underestimation of Public Sentiment

Much of the misperception centered on the public's reaction to the influx of refugees. Initially, there were various calls for action in response to the harsh conditions faced by Syrian exiles along their routes. However, when Chancellor Merkel opened the doors to asylum seekers, she may have underappreciated the depth of public concerns and the potential for widespread division.

Merkel's famous statement, “Wir schaffen das,” or “We’ll do it,” was a testament to her strong belief in her ability to manage the situation. Yet, in retrospect, it seems she may have underestimated the magnitude of the challenge: ‘Wir schaffen das’ not just in the short term but in the long term. This statement was a call to action, but it also put tremendous pressure on the German public and the political system to deliver results that were far from guaranteed.

Ignoring the EU Consultation before Action

A pivotal mistake made by the German political elite was the failure to consult with the other 27 EU member states before implementing the Dublin Regulation. The Dublin Regulation outlines the procedure for determining the member state responsible for examining an asylum application, based on the principle that the first EU country of entry is the responsible state. The decision to override this regulation without prior consultation disregarded the potential for backlash and the importance of collective EU decision-making.

Merkel's approach, while well-intentioned, highlighted the dangers of unilateral action in a highly interdependent union. The lack of consultation before making such a significant policy decision underscored the need for more collaboration and coordination within the EU to address complex issues like the refugee crisis.

Conclusion

The misperception of Angela Merkel’s refugee policy was not merely a failure of individual judgment but a broader issue affecting the German political elite. The underestimation of public sentiment and the lack of prior consultation with EU partners created challenges that extended beyond Germany's borders and had long-lasting implications for the European Union. Understanding these mistakes is crucial for policymakers in Germany and across the EU to better navigate future crises and maintain unity.