Introduction

The recent conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia has become a focal point of global concern, marked by its complexity and the geopolitical undertones underlying the dispute. The primary questions of 'what started the war' and 'who started it' often lead to a deeper exploration of the systemic issues between the Ethiopian central government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

What Started the War

The immediate trigger for the conflict can be traced back to a regional election held in September 2020. This election was organized by the Tigray Regional Government in defiance of a decision by the Ethiopian government and the House of Federation to postpone it due to concerns over the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The TPLF claimed victory with an implausibly high success rate of 98 percent, a figure dismissed by the central government as fraudulent. This election sparked a definitive breakdown in communication and understanding between the two critical regions of the country, marking the beginning of a significant deterioration in their relationship.

On November 4, 2020, TPLF’s special forces launched a provocative attack on Ethiopian military bases in the northern part of the country. This aggressive action forced the central government's hand, compelling it to respond with military force to preserve its integrity and national security. This sequence of events led to the full-scale conflict, with the TPLF expanding its attacks beyond the Tigray region into neighboring areas.

Who Started the Conflict: TPLF or the US?

While the conflict appears to be a direct confrontation between the TPLF and the central Ethiopian government, there is a compelling argument that the involvement of the United States has played a crucial role in exacerbating the situation. The TPLF, historically supported by the US, has been accused of acting as a surrogate for American interests in Africa. Their continued presence and activities in Ethiopia have embodied the interests of a global superpower, leading to suspicions and mistrust among the local populations.

Between 1991 and 2018, the TPLF maintained a repressive regime, deeply influencing Ethiopian politics with the support of the US. This support was not just diplomatic or financial, but also military. Despite their acknowledged human rights abuses, the TPLF managed to maintain power by leveraging the influence of their US allies. However, when Abiy Ahmed Ali took over as Prime Minister in 2018, it became evident that the TPLF could no longer control the government as before. The TPLF's response to this shift was a decidedly aggressive one, culminating in the provocative attack mentioned earlier.

US Involvement and Diplomatic Backlash

The role of the US in the conflict has been a source of growing tension. While the US has advocated for a peaceful resolution, its actions have been viewed with skepticism. The decision to continue demanding negotiations with a non-state actor, like the TPLF, was widely criticized. This stance was exemplified by the remarks of Tibor Nagy, a former US Ambassador to Ethiopia, who argued that the TPLF had no legitimate standing to negotiate with the Ethiopian government.

Nagy's assertions effectively undermined the US position, highlighting the contradiction between their advocacy for peace and their continued backing of the TPLF. Furthermore, the TPLF has yet to provide a credible explanation for its actions, leading to further skepticism and distrust among the international community and the Ethiopian populace.

Conclusion

The conflict between Ethiopia and Tigray is more than a mere power struggle between two factions. It is deeply rooted in historical and geopolitical contexts, with the TPLF's aggressive actions serving as the immediate cause of the conflict. However, the involvement of the US and the subsequent diplomatic response have added another layer of complexity, raising questions about the true intent and impact of their actions. The conflict continues to be a contentious issue, with both sides and the international community grappling with its ramifications and potential solutions.

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