The Stability and Future of the European Union: Disintegration or Diversification?
The European Union (EU) has been a cornerstone of peace and stability in Europe for generations. Before the EU, there was no generation without war. However, the idea that the EU might fall apart and revert to territorial conflicts raises significant concerns. This article explores the potential future of the EU and the factors that suggest it is more likely to diversify rather than disintegrate.
E.U. Stability and Potential for Conflict
The EU has brought three generations of peace and unprecedented stability and prosperity to Europe. If it were to fall apart, it would indicate that there are powerful forces at work that are driving instability and conflict. However, based on current evidence, it is unlikely that the EU will fully fall apart. Instead, it will become even more centralized and may see the inclusion of new member states, including Russia.
Disintegration and the Reality of EU Membership
Some argue that the EU is disintegrating, citing the loss of member states such as the UK. The UK's exit from the EU just a few months ago has already led to tensions, with the UK practically at war with France and Norway, and embroiled in a Cold War with the entire EU. This scenario, if multiplied by 27 additional countries, suggests a chaotic and potentially conflict-ridden future for Europe.
However, recent events in July 2020, where all 27 EU member states quickly agreed on a massive seven-year budgetary program and a plan to combat the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrate that the EU member states are not at risk of initiating a new war. Differences of opinion in the Council of Europe were severe, but this unity of purpose in such a critical time suggests that the EU is resilient and not destined for disintegration.
Role of NATO in Maintaining Peace and Stability
Proponents of EU disintegration often overlook the significant role of NATO in maintaining peace and stability in Europe. NATO, founded on March 4, 1947, was born from the ashes of World War II and the need to keep the peace in Europe. By 1949, it had expanded to a two-member treaty, and today it includes 30 member nations. This alliance is a powerful deterrent against conflict, with any member nation that attacks another member, marked as Blue or Green, committing suicide.
In contrast, the EU does not have a clear foundation date. The European Economic Community (EEC) was formed in 1958, and the Schengen Agreement, which paved the way for open borders, was signed in 1985. The Maastricht Treaty, which formally established the EU, was signed in 1992. What is clear is that the EU project required decades of peace, stability, and a series of treaties to become the bureaucratic behemoth it is today.
Conclusion: EU Diversification and Stability
The EU's future is more likely to be one of diversification rather than disintegration. The EU project has required years of peace and stability to build the infrastructure for cooperation and integration. NATO played a critical role in providing the peace necessary for the EU to thrive. With ongoing tensions in the region and a need for further integration, the EU is more likely to continue to evolve and adapt rather than collapse under the weight of disunity.
It is important to recognize the nuanced relationship between the EU and NATO. While the EU has been instrumental in promoting peace and prosperity, NATO's role in maintaining the peace and security of Europe is irreplaceable.