The Teasing of Pearl Harbor: Did the United States See the Attack Coming?
The question of whether the United States foreseen the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and deliberately pretended not to know has long been a subject of historical debate and scrutiny. While it's important to acknowledge that the U.S. was aware of the possibility of a Japanese attack, it is equally crucial to understand the context and the sequence of events that led to the disaster.
Japanese Diplomatic Cipher and Strategic Alerts
Despite common beliefs, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was not the sole focus of U.S. intelligence efforts. The U.S. was reading the Japanese diplomatic cipher known as Purple, which contained alarming instructions for Japanese spies operating from the Japanese consulate in Honolulu. One of these instructions was the creation of a map of Pearl Harbor showing the dispositions of ships. This detail was unique to Pearl Harbor and could have been crucial for strategic planning. However, it was somehow overlooked by analysts. Various alerts and warnings were issued throughout the fall, but their impact was often diminished by a lack of clarity, speculation, and the biases of their senders. Communication among military leaders such as Admiral Husband Kimmel and Major General Walter Short was also lacking, further reducing the effectiveness of the warnings.
The Deficiency of Preparedness
Several key factors contributed to the unpreparedness of the American forces. Admiral Kimmel fell into predictable patterns, keeping ships in port on weekends and storing anti-aircraft ammunition non-availably. In response to a warning, General Short lined up his airplanes to deter sabotage rather than being ready for aerial attack. Radar systems were only operated until shortly after dawn, and there were no established means to report contacts or dispatch aircraft to investigate. Moreover, neither commander sent out scout planes to gather more information.
Some argue that even if some individuals were aware of the impending attack, there was no concrete evidence that the attack would specifically target Pearl Harbor. Kimmel and Short were badly served by their superiors, but it was ultimately their own mistakes that made the attack so costly.
The Necessity of Defending American Territory
It would have been strategically nonsensical to leave trained men and significant oil reserves at Pearl Harbor wide open to attack. The U.S. had island possessions in the Pacific that it utilized as bases for its military operations. The threat of a Japanese invasion was a significant concern, leading to the implementation of the first peacetime draft order in September 1940. This draft was not aimed at defending the actual states but at securing American territory in the Pacific. The Philippines, for example, was an American possession, and the draft order could have been used to send draftees to bolster forces there, albeit not explicitly mentioned.
It is clear that the U.S. foresaw the possibility of an attack, but the specific target of Pearl Harbor was not as certain as some might believe. The Philippines were also attacked on the same day, highlighting the broader scale of the Japanese aggression and the complex geopolitical situation of the time.
Understanding these historical nuances is crucial for a comprehensive analysis of the events that led to the attack on Pearl Harbor. It is a story of strategic intelligence, military readiness, and the complex geopolitical landscape of the Pacific in the early 1940s.
Keywords: Pearl Harbor, Japanese Attack, Premonition of War