The geopolitical rationale behind Russia's stance in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
In the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Russia did not provide any direct support to Armenia. This decision was strategically calculated, influenced by a myriad of geopolitical factors. Understanding Russia's motivations requires delving into the complex relationships between these nations and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Armenia's Changing Alliances
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia was initially hesitant to align itself with the East Bloc or Russia. Instead, it began to move closer to Western allies, aligning more with NATO supporters. Consequently, Armenia was left with minimal support when it faced a military conflict with Azerbaijan. Turkey and Pakistan provided significant weapons and logistical support to Azerbaijan, exacerbating Armenia's isolation.
Weapons and Defense Dynamics
Today, Armenia is seeking defensive capabilities from international sources. It has started purchasing weapons and ammunition from India, which include artillery guns, multi-barrel rocket launchers, and air defense radars. These supplies are being airlifted through Iranian airspace, as Iran has formed a strategic alliance with Armenia to counter Turkey's support for Azerbaijan.
The Lack of Russian Assistance and its Implications
One might wonder why Russia did not provide any assistance to Armenia, considering the strategic importance of Karabakh to Armenia. However, Russia's inaction is a result of a careful calculation of geopolitical interests. Russia did not engage in direct military support because Karabakh is officially recognized as Azeri territory, and both Russia and Armenia acknowledge this fact. This recognition makes direct support to Armenia regarding Karabakh complex and potentially diplomatically perilous.
Geopolitical Considerations and Leverage
From a Russian strategic perspective, supporting Armenia in this conflict would not have been in Russia's best interests. Turkey, a staunch ally of Azerbaijan, has a vested interest in the region's stability, and supporting Armenia could invite direct conflict with a NATO member, complicating Russia's plans in the Caucasus and broader Middle East.
Additionally, Azerbaijan shares a border with Russia and has a friendly relationship with Russian President Putin, while Armenia's leader, Pashinyan, has pro-Western leanings. Russia is keen on maintaining good relations with Turkey to counterbalance Western influence in the region. Thus, Russia's decision to remain neutral was motivated by the need to avoid potential conflicts and to maintain strategic balance.
The Role of Geographic Containment
Russia has often employed strategic leverage in regions along its borders, similar to its approach in Transnistria and Kaliningrad. By not supporting Armenia, Russia can observe the dynamics and maintain leverage over regional events without directly engaging in a military conflict that could escalate or draw in other major powers.
In conclusion, Russia's neutral stance in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a strategic choice driven by complex geopolitical considerations. This decision reflects a broader and more nuanced approach to international relations, where Russia seeks to maintain its interests and influence through careful and calculated strategies rather than direct military intervention.