Toronto vs Los Angeles: Who Will Surpass Whose Population in the Future?
As of August 2023, Toronto's population stood at approximately 2.9 million, while Los Angeles' population was around 3.9 million. Toronto has been experiencing steady population growth, fueled by immigration and urban development, whereas Los Angeles' growth has slowed in recent years.
Factors Influencing Population Growth
Predicting whether Toronto will surpass Los Angeles in population depends on various factors, including migration trends, birth rates, and urban policies. If Toronto continues to grow at its current pace and Los Angeles faces challenges related to housing and infrastructure, it is possible that Toronto could surpass Los Angeles in the future. Specific projections would require more up-to-date demographic data and trends beyond August 2023.
Trends in Population Growth for Toronto and Los Angeles
Toronto's population growth has been steady and rapid, with the city gaining about 70,000 people per year and the metropolitan area adding about 140,000 people annually. At these rates, the city of Toronto is on track to surpass the city of Los Angeles within 15 years, and by 2046, its metro will have more people than Los Angeles.
Conversely, Los Angeles is experiencing a rapidly declining population. In the last four years, the city's population has been shrinking, creating a stark contrast with Toronto's accelerating growth. This trend is evident in the broader context of Canada's booming population and the United States' decline. Canada's population increased by over 1 million people last year, while the U.S. population barely grew. This statistic is particularly significant given that the U.S. population is 8.5 times larger than Canada's, indicating that Canada is growing at least 8.5 times faster than the United States, a shocking and remarkable change.
Canada's Population Growth vs. California's Decline
At current growth rates, Canada is poised to surpass California's population within a few years. Canada is currently growing at about 500,000 people per year and is forecasted to grow by 700,000 people per year by 2030. This compares starkly with California's declining population, with a decline of about 70,000 in 2019. Given these growth rates, it is highly probable that Canada's population will exceed California's within 3 to 4 years.
Another factor to consider is the recent trends in birth rates and immigration. Canada continues to see higher birth rates and a large influx of immigrants, driving its growth. In contrast, the United States has been experiencing a declining birth rate and a slower pace of immigration, which is contributing to its slower population growth.
Long-Term Projections
Looking at the long-term projections, Canada is growing at 1.5% per year, while the United States is growing at 0.4%. Given these growth rates, Canada could surpass the U.S. population within 150 years. While this timeframe may seem long, in relative terms, it is a blink of an eye, showcasing how the U.S.'s position as a world power is rapidly diminishing.
It is important to note that these projections are based on current trends, and any significant changes in government policies, economic factors, or natural disasters could alter these projections. Nonetheless, given the current data, it appears increasingly likely that Toronto could surpass Los Angeles in population in the coming years.
As the world continues to evolve, tracking these trends closely will be essential for understanding the demographic shifts and their implications for urban planning, resource allocation, and societal needs in both Toronto and Los Angeles.