Introduction

The story of the Tunguska event, a significant meteor explosion that occurred over Siberia in 1908, has often been scrutinized for its possible impacts on human civilization. A thought-provoking scenario imagines how the course of history would have been altered if this enigmatic event had struck Berlin in 1939, just as Germany was preparing to invade Poland. This hypothetical catastrophe could have potentially halted the outbreak of World War 2, drastically changing international relations and military strategies.

Assumptions and Background

Hitler became Chancellor in 1936, and after annexing the Rhineland, he continued aggressive policies. By 1939, Germany had already annexed Poland, and the stage was set for a broader conflict. However, what if a meteor had struck Berlin on September 1st, 1939, on the day when Germany was ready to invade Poland?

Immediate Consequences

The hypothetical meteor strike would have caused massive destruction in Berlin. With a force of around 12 megatons, the impact would have leveled 2150 km2 (830 sq mi) of forest. This event would have significantly altered the landscape, causing widespread devastation to local flora and fauna. Such a powerful explosion would have dwarfed the 20 kiloton explosion of the atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki during World War 2, signaling a catastrophic shift in the military and political landscape.

Impact on Germany

In the event of such a strike, the German military and government would have faced an unprecedented challenge. The devastation would have rendered large parts of Berlin uninhabitable and would have greatly reduced the leadership and military capacity of Nazi Germany. With the loss of high-ranking leadership, the armed forces, and the invasion preparations, Germany would have been in a weakened state.

National and International Reactions

Domestically, the event would have sparked intense emotional and political reactions. Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels would likely have capitalized on the situation to evoke national and patriotic sentiments, portraying the meteor as an act of divine intervention. However, the immediate focus would have been on the urgent rescue operations and the restoration of order.

Changes in Diplomatic and Military Strategies

Internationally, the scenario presents a drastically different path for World War 2. Without the clear leadership and military force necessary for a full-scale invasion of Poland, Germany would likely have been compelled to make peace with France and the UK. With a reduced capacity to engage in prolonged conflict, France and the UK would also have been in a more advantageous position to negotiate.

Altered Course of Warsaw Pact

Poland would have been in a strategic position. Free from the pressure of a four-sided conflict, Poland could have retrenched its defenses or possibly even pushed back the Soviet advance. Alternatively, the Soviet Union, facing relentless pressure, may have been more inclined to back down. Should they choose to continue, they would have likely experienced significant pushback from Poland, resulting in a different outcome compared to the actual invasion. As for Finland, a similar scenario of territorial exchange but not the full annexation might have unfolded.

Global Impact

Without the need to divert attention and resources to counter Poland, Japan and Italy, major opponents of the Allied powers, would have faced lesser resistance. This would have likely hastened their defeat and forced them to reconsider their alliances and military strategies. The geopolitical landscape of the time would have been severely altered, potentially leading to a lesser scale or a different series of events for World War 2.

In conclusion, the Tunguska event, if it had struck Berlin in 1939, would have fundamentally altered the course of history. It would not only have redirected the path of World War 2 but also reshaped the dynamics of international relations, military strategies, and the overall global order. The upheaval caused by such an event would have set a new trajectory for the future of Europe and Asia in the mid-20th century.