What Does Assad Gain From the Carnage in Syria?
Throughout the Syrian Civil War, the Assad regime has been responsible for significant destruction and loss of life as it attempts to maintain control. The question often raised is: What does Assad gain from this carnage?
Destroying Rebel Strongholds
The primary gain for Assad is the destruction of areas that were either passively or actively supporting rebel groups. This strategy not only targets physical locations but also sends a message of fear to the population, pressuring them to flee the country. By destroying these areas, he hopes to diminish support for the rebels and, by extension, the entire opposition.
Securing Power and Surviving the War
Staying in power and surviving the war are Assad’s primary goals. The harsh lessons from the fate of Gaddafi in Libya have not been lost on him. Assad understands that maintaining his grip on power is essential to his survival, both for himself and his regime. This has driven his willingness to engage in brutal tactics, such as military offensives and aerial bombings.
The Complexity of Facts
The reality of the Syrian Civil War is replete with conflicting narratives and reported facts. Many of the commonly held Western perspectives are often viewed as propaganda or outright lies by people in the Middle East. For instance, claims about the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime are often met with skepticism by those supportive of his regime. Similarly, the fate of American and other international civilians in Syria is a point of contention, with different narratives circulating depending on the audience.
Religious and Sectarian Divide
Understanding the conflict in Syria requires delving into its complex religious and sectarian dynamics. Assad and his regime are predominantly Shia Alawites, while many opposition groups, including ISIS, are Sunni Muslims. Historically, there has been significant tension between Shia and Sunni Muslims, akin to the historical battles between Catholics and Protestants during the Reformation. This divide is further exacerbated in Syria, where the Alawites hold most of the power, despite being a minority in the population.
Targeting Sunnis and Beyond
The targets of Assad’s forces often extend beyond just so-called “terrorists”. There are reports that his forces are indiscriminately targeting Sunni areas, which leads him to be accused of attempting to wipe out Sunnis as a whole, not just the extremist elements. In response, Sunni fighters and rebels have also targeted Alawites and Christians, leading to a cycle of retaliation. This sectarian divide has blurred the lines between combatants, making it difficult to distinguish between legitimate military targets and innocent civilians.
Human Rights and Trust
The human rights situation in Syria is dire. Multiple forces are fighting for control, and it is not a straightforward conflict. Organizations like NGOs are often trusted as they provide unbiased information from the ground. In contrast, Assad’s supporters and foreign anti-Assad governments are generally not trusted. The Syrian people, especially the Sunni population, are seen more as enemies to Assad’s regime than as fellow citizens.
Syrian Kurds as a Potential Ally
Among the various Sunni groups in Syria, the Syrian Kurds stand out as a potential ally. They seem to be the most reliable and least sectarian of the Sunni factions. However, even their trust is subject to scrutiny, given the complex and often volatile nature of the conflict.
As the conflict continues, the underlying beliefs and motivations of those involved remain crucial in understanding the narrative and the actions taken. The ongoing violence and the perspectives of various factions make the situation increasingly complex and challenging to navigate.