Why Gibraltar Was the Most Strongly 'Remain' Constituency in the Brexit Referendum
As Lenin eloquently stated, "it is not important who votes; it is important who counts!" The Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom was no exception, as certain regions staunchly remained within the European Union. One of the most surprising and intriguing constituencies was Gibraltar. This article delves into the reasons behind Gibraltar's overwhelming 96% 'Remain' vote and explores the implications for the region's future.
The Impact of Mariano Rajoy's Removal from Power
Gibraltar's preference to remain part of the EU can be attributed to a combination of economic factors and political realities. Following the removal of Mariano Rajoy from the Spanish government and the subsequent rise of the Socialists (PSOE) under Pedro Sánchez, the political landscape shifted significantly. The PSOE's approach to Gibraltar-U.K. relations is likely to be more favorable due to its recognition of Gibraltar's economic importance to the region.
Under the new government, there is less likelihood of imposing a veto on issues that affect Gibraltar's relationship with the European Union. The surrounding Andalusian region, with its 250,000 inhabitants and the Andalusian government as the main employer, stands to benefit greatly from Gibraltar's continued EU membership. This economic interdependence is a key factor in the 'Remain' vote.
International Borders and Control Issues
Geography also plays a crucial role in understanding Gibraltar's 'Remain' tilt. Areas with significant international borders, such as Gibraltar and those listed in the original content (Foyle, Newry Armagh, and Fermanagh South Tyrone), generally voted to remain within the EU. The message of taking back control resonated with some regions where Leave was the dominant choice. However, for areas like Gibraltar with EU borders, the promise of new controls and increased regulatory barriers can be detrimental.
Furthermore, the successful implementation of new controls would fly in the face of the assurances given by Christopher Grayling, a UK cabinet minister, who stated in 2016, "Brexit means taking back control." In contrast, a 2018 statement by the same minister contradicted this message by affirming that Brexit would mean no new controls.
Economic Benefits of EU Membership
Gibraltar has thrived since joining the EU 40 years ago. Unblockages of the border with Spain have been a significant improvement, and Gibraltar remains exempt from the Schengen Agreement and the adoption of the Euro. Its tax-exempt status has allowed it to generate substantial wealth through off-shore banking. The region also benefits from the smuggling of highly-taxed items such as cigarettes, alcohol, and other goods, making economic disruption an unwelcome outcome.
The potential economic downsides for the UK from leaving the EU are well-documented, but for Gibraltar, these penalties would be amplified. The implications for the relationship between Gibraltar and Spain, especially regarding border controls and economic ties, are crucial considerations for the region's future.
Conclusion
The high 'Remain' vote in Gibraltar reflects a complex interplay of political and economic factors. As the new Spanish government navigates its relationship with Britain and Gibraltar, the region's economic and cultural ties will continue to shape the debate. Understanding Gibraltar's 'Remain' stance is crucial for comprehending the broader implications of the Brexit referendum and its ongoing effects on the UK and EU.