Why Has Russia Not Utilized Its Long-Range Aircraft for Strikes on Ukraine Since September 21?
The strategic challenges faced by Russia in Ukraine have evolved over time, particularly since September 21. This decision to avoid deploying long-range aircraft for strikes can be attributed to a combination of tactical, logistical, and strategic factors.
Tactical Considerations and Air Superiority
Russia's military actions in Ukraine have largely been supported by economic and physical impacts on infrastructure. However, the conflict has reached a critical stage where Russian bombers face significant risks.
The Ukrainian military, particularly its air force, has established a notable air superiority. This dominance in the skies has made it highly risky for Russian bombers to carry out missions. Their efforts to challenge this air superiority have resulted in numerous losses.
Logistical Challenges
Frequent losses of Russian aircraft have highlighted the urgent need for repairs and maintenance. This is exacerbated by Western sanctions that have disruptively affected the supply of military-related products and parts.
According to military analysts, Russian aviation has been significantly affected by these sanctions. The frequency of damage and loss has severely impacted their operational capabilities, leaving bombers in a precarious state.
Strategic Decisions and Future Plans
Russia's strategy in Ukraine has evolved with each phase of the conflict. It is worth noting that Russian long-range bombers have been grounded since September 21. This is a calculated move likely aimed at preserving aircraft and minimizing losses.
Looking ahead, the situation is expected to change as Ukraine gains access to more advanced air defense systems, such as the F-16 fighters that are set to be supplied with support from foreign nations.
Should Ukraine capitalize on these advancements, it will significantly disrupt Russian operations, leading to a more asymmetric and dangerous conflict environment for the Russian Air Force.
Technological Factors
The Russian airstrikes that have been shot down are often a generation behind current air defense systems. The most modern Russian aircraft have also faced similar fates. This underscores the technological gap and the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses.
Ukrainian air defense systems have proven to be unpredictable and effective in countering Russian efforts. The losses suffered by Russian forces are a testament to the sophistication and capability of these defenses.
Conclusion
The current strategy of avoiding long-range aircraft strikes in Ukraine is not a sign of Russia's defeat but rather a tactical and strategic decision made in response to the emerging threats. As the conflict evolves, the balance of power in the skies will likely shift, leading to significant changes in tactics and military operations on both sides.