Why Haven't Russia Bombed All of Kiev from the Air?

It is a common misconception that Russia possesses a vast strategic air force capable of carpet bombing an entire city. However, several factors have contributed to the restraint of their aerial campaign against Ukraine.

Strategic Inefficiency and Air Defense Threats

Firstly, Russia lacks the necessary strategic air force to conduct extensive bombing campaigns. The Russian military relies heavily on advanced precision weapons rather than saturation bombing techniques. This is evident in the limited number of airstrikes that have occurred, with less than eighty missiles per "heavy barrage." This strategy is based on the assumption that they have enough ammunition to last for at least one month of full-scale operations, but with the current operational disruption, this estimate may be inaccurate. Additionally, Russia's limited air defenses have posed significant challenges. Ukrainian forces have become increasingly adept at shooting down Russian aircraft and missiles. The determination of Ukrainian defenders to protect their homeland, combined with the fear of casualties among their own pilots, has led to a cautious approach by the Russian military.

Missile Shortage and Production Challenges

The Russian military's missile supply is another critical factor. Russia has relied on a mix of aging and newly manufactured missiles. It was initially claimed that they had enough ammunition for a month of combat. However, ongoing production and the current conflicts have depleted their stock. While production continues, the rate of ammunition manufacture is not sufficient to support prolonged aerial operations. This limitation has forced Russia to be selective in their targets and methods. The notion of "carpet bombing" is not feasible given the current missile shortages and the risk of destroying critical infrastructure with indiscriminate attacks.

Limited Air Force Capabilities and Strategic Reserves

Russia's air force is also limited in terms of modern heavy bombers. They currently possess a small number of Soviet-era heavy bombers, and there is little prospect of acquiring new ones. These bombers are reserved for strategic missions, such as nuclear attacks, which are of paramount importance. Using them for less critical missions would be entirely reckless, given the high risk of interception and destruction. Moreover, the high cost and difficulty of manufacturing aircraft have led to a significant reduction in their use. Even when used, they are primarily employed for close air support operations rather than extensive bombing campaigns.

Alternative Aerial Warfare Tactics

Despite these limitations, Russia continues to use a variety of aerial warfare tactics. Bombs and other ordnance are employed, but their effectiveness is hampered by the need for delivery systems. Low and high-altitude delivery systems are vulnerable to Ukrainian air defenses, leading to a reduction in their use. The high cost and labor-intensiveness of producing aircraft have curtailed their use, but they are occasionally employed in close support operations. Furthermore, Russia's reported targeting of "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine is a propaganda tactic to justify their actions. The term "liberators" is also a misleading narrative, as the Russian forces have been accused of using any means necessary in their mission to control Ukrainian territory.

Conclusion

The reasons why Russia has not bombed all of Kiev from the air are complex and multifaceted. Strategic limitations, missile shortages, limited air force capabilities, and a cautious approach to avoid casualties are all contributing factors. While the Russian military continues to rely on aerial tactics, their limitations and the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses have made comprehensive carpet bombing an impractical option.