Why Maryland Governor Larry Hogan Thinks Donald Trump Can't Win a Second Term
As one of America's governors, Larry Hogan has often speculated on the possibility of running for the presidency. Despite his diplomatic comments about President Donald Trump, Hogan's criticisms have been noted, as Trump's actions and policies are increasingly unpopular in Maryland. With this in mind, we can examine why Hogan believes Trump may struggle to secure a second term.
General Elections in 2020
As pointed out by experts, 2020 remains an uncertain election. There is no one clear frontrunner. The unpredictability of politics means that even a strong performance in the polls does not guarantee a win. This uncertainty can be attributed to the complexity of the American electorate and the fast-changing political landscape, as evidenced by previous elections.
Hogan's Concerns
According to Hogan, the crux of Trump's potential struggle lies in the re-election numbers he anticipates will be in the low forties. In an interview with CBS News, Hogan stated: “The issue I'm concerned about is he has a very low re-elect number I think in the 30s high 30s low 40s.”
Independent Approval Ratings
While Hogan's concerns are valid, his focus on re-election numbers oversimplifies the situation. A more comprehensive analysis reveals that the key factor may be Trump's approval ratings among independent voters.
Independent voters, often referred to as swing voters, are pivotal in many elections. Looking at historical data, we can see that these voters' approval ratings play a significant role in determining the winner.
Here’s a comparison of Obama’s and Trump’s approval ratings with independent voters at similar points in their presidencies:
Obama was re-elected. George W. Bush: 50% (2003) and 46% (2004)
George W. Bush was re-elected.
These statistics indicate that for a president to secure a second term, they need to generate substantial support among independent voters. In Trump's case, his approval ratings among independents are currently lower, hovering around the mid-thirties.
Path Forward
Based on this analysis, it appears that Trump may need to significantly improve his approval ratings among independent voters to secure a second term. This could involve a combination of policy changes, communication strategies, and evident governance success.
However, it is essential to consider other factors that could influence the election, such as the emergence of a strong independent challenger, unforeseen political events, or global crises. Two years is indeed a long time in the world of politics, and many unpredictable factors can influence the outcome.
Therefore, while Hogan's concerns are valid, a broader analysis of historical patterns and current dynamics suggests that Trump may need to reassess his approach to gain substantial support from independent voters, which could be crucial for his re-election bid.