Introduction
The question of why Russia has not significantly opposed North Macedonia's admission to NATO, when it did vigorously oppose Montenegro's move, has perplexed many. This article will explore the underlying reasons for Russia's contrasting behavior and provide insight into the historical and geopolitical context that influences its stance.
Historical Context and Russian Involvement
Montenegro and Russia's Involvement: Russia has a complex and historical relationship with Montenegro. During the early 20th century, the Russian Empire played a significant role in supporting the statehood of modern-day Montenegro. Russia provided substantial financial support, including a dedicated budgetary item that made a key contribution to Montenegro's economy and infrastructure. Additionally, Russian aid in the form of supplies, military assistance, and diplomatic support helped prevent the re-conquest of those territories by the Ottoman Empire.
This support was not temporary but spanned decades and included protecting Montenegro during periods of famine and other crises. However, with the changes in governance and historical shifts, the relationship between Russia and Montenegro has evolved. Today, Montenegro is a NATO member, and this has not sat well with Russia.
Russian Attitude Towards NATO
Russia’s Position on NATO: It is important to note that Russia views NATO with considerable skepticism and serves as a significant competitor in the global arena. The Russian government has historically been opposed to the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe, as it perceives this as a direct threat to its strategic interests. NATO’s expansion into former Soviet states further compels Russia to respond with significant opposition.
Russia's opposition to Montenegro's NATO admission is understandable in this context. During the 2016 Montenegrin independence referendum, there were reports of Russian involvement, including possible interference. The openly pro-Russian stance of the political elite in Montenegro could be seen as a direct threat to Russia's strategic positioning in the Balkans.
North Macedonia: Different Dynamics
North Macedonia and Greece: The opposition Russia faced during North Macedonia's admission to NATO was significantly different due to the influence of Greece. The name dispute between Greece and North Macedonia kept the vestiges of political tension in place. Greece, being a member of the European Union and NATO, maneuvered to support North Macedonia's entry into both NATO and the EU, while navigating its own historical tensions with Greece.
Additionally, the Prespa Agreement, signed in 2018, resolved the name dispute between North Macedonia and Greece. This agreement paved the way for North Macedonia's NATO membership and its admission into the EU. The Prespa Agreement ensures that North Macedonia's name and symbols are changed to reflect a new, mutually agreed-upon terminology, further reducing the political obstacles to NATO membership.
Conclusion
The contrasting responses from Russia to North Macedonia and Montenegro's NATO entries can be attributed to a combination of historical context, geopolitical realities, and the respective dynamics at play. Russia's strong support for Montenegro during its path to statehood implies a greater historical and strategic interest, leading to a stronger opposition to its accession to NATO. The resolution of the name dispute and the alignment with EU interests helped reduce the obstacles for North Macedonia's inclusion in NATO, thus lessening the latency of Russian opposition.
It is crucial to understand that countries, such as Russia, do not have a unilateral, direct decision over NATO membership. Once nations are members, they can decide to withdraw, emphasizing the importance of international cooperation and diplomacy in shaping a nation's path to joining such alliances.