Why Would Russia Initiate a Tactical Nuclear Strike on Ukraine Instead of the US?
As the ongoing conflict in Ukraine intensifies, there have been persistent concerns about the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. This article explores the likelihood of such an event, the reasons behind it, and the potential consequences for Russia and the international community.
Understanding the Current Conflict
Russia has not required the use of tactical nuclear weapons to date, but the strikes on Hmelnitky on 11–12 May 2023 have raised alarm. While these strikes were significant, they did not involve nuclear weapons. A tactical nuclear strike would have far-reaching and catastrophic consequences, not only for Ukraine but also for the broader international community.
Consequences of a Tactical Nuclear Strike on Ukraine
If Russia were to initiate a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine, the global condemnation of Russia would be immediate and severe. However, there would be no need for a retaliatory strike from Ukraine, as Ukraine does not have a standing military alliance with any major power. Any such attack would indicate a declaration of war, placing Russia in a precarious position.
Strategic Considerations and NATO Response
The use of tactical nuclear weapons would have a direct and immediate impact on NATO. An attack on US territory or forces would escalate to a full-fledged war, involving all NATO countries. Conversely, an attack on Ukrainian territory would not automatically lead to such a response, as it would be seen as an act of aggression but not a declaration of war.
Putin’s strategy of escalate to de-escalate involves attempting to shock NATO into backing down by exaggerating the threat. For instance, recent accusations that Ukraine is prepared to use a “dirty bomb” fit this scenario. Putin may attempt to stage a false flag operation to mislead the international community. If such an attack were to occur, Putin might make a tacit threat of retaliatory action with a tactical nuclear weapon, leveraging fear rather than force to achieve his goals.
Risk Assessment and Diplomatic Considerations
Despite the potential for catastrophic consequences, the likelihood of Russia initiating a tactical nuclear strike is still low. Putin is employing a strategy of brinksmanship to deter NATO from further involvement in Ukraine. The Russian military is aware of the global sensitivity to the use of nuclear weapons and the political fallout it could cause, making nuclear escalation a tactic of last resort.
Should Russia attempt a tactical nuclear strike, it would be countered with overwhelming force from NATO. The US, in particular, has the military capacity to destroy the Russian naval and submersible forces, eliminate stockpiles, factories, and transportation infrastructure, and do so without resorting to nuclear weapons. This strategic superiority is a significant deterrent against nuclear escalation.
Conclusion
A tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine, while a possible yet unlikely scenario, would have dire consequences for Russia and the global community. The primary goal for Putin is to leverage fear rather than force through escalation to de-escalate the conflict. The international community, particularly NATO, remains vigilant and ready to counter any such threats with both diplomatic and military means.