Why the European Union Finds It Difficult to Accept Turkey as a Member
The question “Why isn't Turkey being accepted into the European Union?” is typically rephrased to: “Why the European Union finds it difficult to accept Turkey as a member.” This inquiry delves into the complex political, economic, and societal reasons that have hindered Turkey's path to EU membership.
Demographic Considerations and Power Dynamics
Turkey, with its current population of approximately 86 million, is projected to exceed 100 million by 2060. While this demographic increase is substantial, the current European Union (EU) lacks enthusiasm for including Turkey as a full member. Bigger EU countries such as Germany and France have little interest in allowing a nation that could substantially alter the power dynamics within the EU Parliament, financial mechanisms, and other governing bodies. An expanded EU with a larger member state would mean a significant shift in representation, achieving a new balance of power that the existing members may see as disadvantageous.
Furthermore, Turkey's geographical position is near numerous conflict zones, including Iraq, Syria, and Iran. Admitting a country with such geographical complexities into the EU could open new vulnerabilities in the Union's borders. The EU is currently focused on maintaining stability within its existing member states and in its surrounding regions. Expanding to a country with ongoing conflict zones might not align with the EU's current priorities for security and peace.
Economic Disparities and Development Trajectories
The economic disparity between Turkey and established EU members such as Germany and France is also a significant factor. In 1995, Germany's per capita income was 11 times higher than Turkey's, and France's was 9 times higher. Fast forward to 2023, Germany's per capita income is roughly 4 times higher, and France's is about 3.5 times higher. Despite these disparities, Turkey's economy is expected to grow significantly. By 2050, Turkey's per capita income is projected to equal that of Spain and Italy. Moreover, Turkey is anticipated to have a GDP comparable to France's by the same year. With a large youth population, Turkey remains a youthful and vibrant economy, driving future development.
While Turkey's economic growth is promising, one might wonder why the country needs to join the EU to achieve these goals. The EU accession process is extensive, requiring the completion of the acquis, which is a set of rules, laws, and policies that an aspiring member must adopt. Currently, the Republic of Cyprus is blocking the opening of the acquis chapters to Turkey due to Turkey's recognition issues with the island. The EU is wary of allowing such complexities into its membership discussions, given that it would set a precedent for other potential members facing similar challenges.
Political and Social Considerations
Another significant barrier to Turkey's EU membership is political and social stability. Turkey's commitment to democracy, human rights, and the rule of law remains a subject of scrutiny. There are ongoing debates within Turkey about the necessity of EU membership for the country's development. Some argue that joining the EU would present an array of regulatory and bureaucratic challenges that could hinder progress.
The issue of religious and cultural sensitivities is also a critical factor. Turkey, a predominantly Muslim country, has faced criticism for the role it plays in supporting radical interpretations of Islam in Europe. For instance, the construction of the large Mosque in Rotterdam, complete with shops and educational facilities, was supported by financing from countries like Qatar, which is known for its conservative religious stance. The EU is concerned about the potential impact of this on the social fabric and the balance of religious forces within Europe. The EU may fear that Turkish immigrants, representing conservative Islamic views within Europe, could influence or even support undemocratic or controversial social movements.
Moreover, the EU is aware of the risk of being perceived as supporting or endorsing the religious and political positions of certain countries, which might undermine its stance on human rights and democracy. This is particularly true when facing challenges from autocratic regimes in the Middle East, where Turkey, as a potential platform for radical Islamic ideologies, could pose a threat to democracy and human rights advancements.
In conclusion, while Turkey's inclusion in the European Union carries many potential benefits, the EU is confronted with significant challenges in accepting Turkey as a member. These include demographic and power dynamics, economic disparities, political considerations, and cultural and religious sensitivities. Overcoming these hurdles will be crucial for both Turkey and the EU to facilitate a smooth accession process.