Would Russia Have Invaded the Baltic Countries if NATO Had Not Made Them Members?

Without a shadow of doubt, the answer is no. Even with premeditated invasion plans, Russia chose to invade Ukraine instead, considering it a bigger prize with less risk of escalation. However, if the Baltic countries had not been NATO members, the situation would have been quite different. This article explores the potential outcomes and the role NATO plays in ensuring the sovereignty and security of Eastern European nations.

The Role of NATO

NATO has been a cornerstone of security for its member countries, including the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Eastern European nations joined NATO to avoid the same fate as Ukraine and to secure their sovereignty against expansionist dictators like Vladimir Putin. NATO is a defensive alliance that provides each member with the ability to fully express their sovereignty, regardless of their size.

Alternative Scenarios Without NATO Membership

Imagine a scenario where the Baltic countries did not join NATO. In this case, Russia, led by mass murderer Vladimir Putin and the criminal Kremlin, might have considered invading these countries for land and resources. However, the expected costs of such an invasion, including the loss of thousands of military lives and millions of rubles in equipment, might have deterred Russia.

Furthermore, if the Baltic countries had not been part of NATO, they would likely have faced an aggressive stance, similar to that of Belarus under Lukashenka. This posture of allegiance would have effectively stripped them of their ability to express their sovereignty, rendering their independence as mere appearances.

Russian Federation and the Near Abroad

The Russian Federation is embarking on a process of reconstructing the Russian Empire, seeking to establish a military presence in all republics that were part of the Russian Empire or the USSR. These independent republics are considered part of the 'near abroad,' a historical buffer zone that protected Russia from foreign invaders. This policy directly contrasts with the USSR's policy of rejecting nationalism and promoting a union of equals.

Returning to the Baltic states, Russia would view them as a significant threat, given their proximity to St. Petersburg and their status as NATO members. The Baltic countries act as a bulwark against Russian expansion, and if they were not NATO members, Russia would likely have already invaded them, as the Baltics would not have been protected by the security guarantees provided by NATO.

The Russian Federation actively aims to model the situation in Ukraine after that of Finland. For Russia, Ukraine must reach a minimum standard of governance and stability, which Finland represents. Without NATO membership, the Baltic countries would be in a precarious position, likely facing more aggressive Russian policies and potential military incursions.

Thus, the inclusion of the Baltic countries in NATO serves a critical security function, not just for them but for the entire region. It reinforces their sovereignty and ensures a measure of stability in Eastern Europe, providing a barrier against Russian aggression and grand strategic plans.